10/28 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 326 EV, 99.3% WIN PROB, 51.27% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

The National popular vote (95%) and Monte Carlo electoral vote (99%)models are converging.

The Economist Poll has Kerry leading 49-45. They poll 3000 (not the typical 1000) and have a 2.0% MOE. That means they are serious.
Kerry was at 48-46 in last week's poll, so the trend is there.

If you believe this poll (I do), then this is very strong confirmation that Kerry is closing the deal.

The Economist means business. No Bushit.


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Technowitch]

1. Sweeeeeet!

[Tesibria]

2. sweeet -- but I still like the meta-analysis better

because it focuses on state-by-state.

Remember - Gore won the national/popular election. What really matters is what's going on in each individual state.

fortunately, based on http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html -- things are going very well for Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

4. You have NOT looked at the model. It does a Monte Carlo EV simulation

based on state polling and Kerry win probabilties. Professor Wang has a different approach.

I suggest you check out the model. You will be quite surprised at the extent of the analysis and graphics.

Speaking of states:

[Tesibria]

8. Actually, YES i HAVE - but apologize for any offense

I really do like yours too and think that the numbers look really good for us. Was expressing personal opinion (maybe not well stated) that I like the layout and ease of finding the state-by-state information more quickly. I did not mean to imply that your model didn't also include state-specific information.

Yours too is a very informative and very helpful site too. I like it. I really do.

[Homerr]

3. Yes!

[Fed Up]

5. Thanks, TIA. I have confidence that on Nov 3

You won't post "I can't believe I got it wrong. Let me show you where my calculation was wrong. Sorry, all."

Because I know you are not going to have to say that. You'll be saying "Right on".



Five more days!

[elperromagico]

6. "Let's just say I like the text here."

- James Carville, The War Room.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Kick for Mike Malloy.

Did I ever tell you how much I hate the BFEE?

[Lugnut]

9. Thanks TIA

I look forward to your posts every day.

FYI.....a newspaper report in my local paper had an article about Sen. Edwards' rally in Wilkes-Barre PA on Tuesday evening. The woman who was chosen to introduce him was quoted as saying that Tony Podesta told her their polls were showing K/E up by 4 in PA and 5 in FL. I had to read the whole article to find that little snippet but I thought it was significant info from a campaign principal.

[Tweed]

10. It's that .7 chance that scares me

:scared:

[Chichiri]

11. Thanks, TIA!

[TruthIsAll]

12. AM Kick

.