THE FINAL PROOF THAT * IS TOAST! THE TRADERS ARE BETTING KERRY! BIG TIME.

[TruthIsAll]

He was down 40-60 just a FEW days ago.

He is leading now for the FIRST TIME!
http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_amd.jsp?selConID=11738&z=26/07/2004-03:46:04#


Contract B Qty Bid Ask A Qty Last Vol Chge
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 30 49.4 49.6 24 49.6 969.0k -4.4
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 100 50.2 50.3 6 50.0 80.2k +4.2

[Trajan]

1. Sentiment about the al Qaqaa story ? ...

Wow ...... that is an impressive swing ....

[loudsue]

2. Sorry to sound dumb, TIA.....but what is that? Is it like horse racing

or something? Does it mean that people are placing bets on who will win?

:dunce: Sorry to be the slow student here! :silly:

:kick::kick:

[TruthIsAll]

3. There is an election futures market (think commodities)

You can buy shares in Bush (or Kerry) if you think his "share price" will rise. The price is essentially the probability or the odds of winning the election, based on supply and demand in trading activity. The trading has been pro Bush - until today.

The London gamblers have 20-1 odds on a Kerry win. That's a little less than his 99% win probability in today's Election Model run.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Don't make up ludicrous garbage regarding gambling odds

Please direct me to that 20/1. I'll take it for everything I have and borrow until they turn me away.

Your math is terrific. I don't understand the need to supplement it with made-up crap.

I called three offshore sportsbooks in the last hour. All three still have Bush as a slight favorite, in the 5/7 range.

[loudsue]

12. Don't start slammin' TruthIsAll, awsie...

Please speak w/ respect to one of our favorite DUers!

:kick::kick:

[supervan]

4. same where I bet (UK)

Site is www.betfair.com (UK)

Price for the repukes was about 1.65 yesterday and has been stable for a week or more. You could get democrats for about 2.5 But in the last couple of hours it’s changed and they are about level. Repukes now 1.91 and democrats 2.08

That’s a very big swing in this market. Total matched so far: GBP3,382,941

Just checked again it’s changed again. Now the democrats 1.96 and the repukes 2.02 (for those that don't bet it means the market thinks the democrats will now win)

Good stuff!

[loudsue]

15. Thanks for the info, supervan!!

I think I'm getting the hang of this. In other words, Kerry's doing ok...folks are betting he is going to be the next PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!!!!

:bounce: Yeeeeaaaaaaahhhhhh!!! :bounce:

:kick::kick::kick:

[newyawker99]

19. Hi supervan!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[elperromagico]

5. Who led in trading in 2000?

Bush?

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Bush was a 1/2 favorite on election day

That's bet 2 to win 1. It went up in the final week, from 5/8 favoritism throughout the previous month.

[Gothmog]

6. Cool

[The Magistrate]

7. An Interesting Development, Mr. All

As cash liquidation of the positions looms nearer, the mind concentrates wonderfully....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[snippy]

8. This looks like it is just Bush contract holders dumping their positions

more than it is people buying Kerry contracts.

[JusticeForAll]

9. Looks like an imminent Repub Sell Off!!

Where can we sell some of ours?!?

[fujiyama]

13. That is quite a shift

Let's hope they're all betting on the right guy.

[RevCheesehead]

14. So, TIA, how are your Monte Carlo sims going?

[loudsue]

16. WOW!!! I want a copy of that picture on my wall!!

That is one .... KEWL ..... picture!!!

:kick::kick::kick:

[RevCheesehead]

18. From JohnKerry.com

[Wapsie B]

17. Great pic!

Go Madison!