Don't Believe the Polls, Says Polling Firm Head of Research

[evworldeditor]

I had lunch today with the head of research for a well-recognized polling firm and we talked about the various polls. He reaffirmed what I've heard elsewhere, that the polls are increasingly unrealiable.

The reason?

Six percent of Americans now use only cell phones and not land lines. Another three percent don't have phones at all. And more and more people use caller ID and answering machines to avoid answering unwanted calls (I use both!)

The result is that increasingly, the only people who bother to answer pollster's questions are lonely, older Americans (his words), which skews the polls toward conservative responses.

My friend's read is that Bush may end up winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral college vote, a sort of poetic justice.

Me? I prefer the results of the Nickelodeum kid's election that gave the win to Kerry by 57%.

[deadparrot]

1. Yup.

I believe it was CNN Headline News that did a piece on this today.

Less than 20% of the people called actually consent to be polled
Cell phone users
No-call lists

There were a few more, but I can't remember...

[mvd]

2. They've been so all over the place that..

I've given up on them for now. If they don't come together over the weekend, they might never. The early turnout convinces me that Nov. 2 we'll be celebrating!