Schieffer on Larry King: Young people with cell phones will decide on Tues

[seventhson]

Schieffer says the young people vote is going to decide it and they are not being polled. Only one in six people getting called even want to cooperate with pollsters. And young folsk pretty much all have cell phones.

So Do you have a cell phone?

Only a cell phone or both land line and cell phone

and have you been polled (answer in thread)?

and how old are you?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. My husband has been polled

we don't have a cell phone (they don't work here in the mountains where we live). We are both in our early 50s.

[seventhson]

4. I won't use cell phones myself except in an emergency

because of the brain cancer risk.

So I have a land line only. I have not been polled.

I am around 50.

[Roland99]

36. Heck, by the time cancer set in, you'd be 100!

:)

[Doug Decker]

2. Got rid of my land line in June...

haven't missed it once.

My land line was out for two weeks after a heavy rain over the past winter. When I called repair to report the outtage, the recording said, "We will contact you at your home number to arrange repair."

Right then I decided I'd better find something better.

[jessicazi]

3. Cell phone only

23. Haven't been polled. First time voter too.

[meisje]

5. I don't answer my phone unless it's in-state and a known number

[George_S]

25. You're missing out on some really good ...

... recorded telemarketing.

It's amazing what technology can do.

[blueblitzkrieg]

6. 21 years old with only a cell phone.

Many college kids only have cell phones.

[AntiCoup2K4]

7. And then you have people like my mom

Who usually tells pollsters "It's none of your goddamn business who I'm voting for" and then hangs up.

She'll be voting for Kerry, incidentally. But if she asks, you didn't hear that from me. :evilgrin:

[flygal]

26. My mom was polled during '84 and said the same thing....

and she voted for Raygun - she has since seen the light and come out of the darkness.

[seventhson]

8. If the numbers so far are a fair reflection (and we'll see about that...)

then about 20% of new mostly young voters (18-30)are NOT being polled.

I think between the draft and the disgust with the war that those numbers will break at least 60-40% for Kerry - maybe more.

That means if the rest of us are 50-50 then Kerry will win by at least 52-48%.

4% is a pretty safe margin and my guess is that will be uniform across the nation so the battleground states will break for Kerry big time and the electoral vote may well be a land slide. 300+ electoral votes for Kerry.

[seventhson]

9. Correction - I think women ALSO are heavy cell phone users

along with young folks. Convenience and security are important for their lives in many ways older men are less likely to care about.

I commute many hours a week and by far the vast majority of cell-phone using drivers are women IMHO.

Just an observation but I think these will break substantially for Kerry as well -- especially if they have teenage sons.

[seventhson]

10. kick

[spooky3]

11. WaPo reports: only 3% of cell phone owners have no landline phone

See my thread with link to this article earlier today.

[seventhson]

12. I suspect most kids with cell phone have parents with landlines

so these WaPo numbers still do not reflect the reality

Kids in collge or on their own still might respond that they have both because at "home" they have one.

Hell I still use my parent's phone number (even though they both died years ago)

[Cha]

13. I have something to add...my

son has only a cell phone in Hawaii and he's voting for Kerry!:D

[California Griz]

14. I'm 46

I only have a cell phone. When I had a land line I got polled frequently.

[baltodemvet]

15. 62 landline

don't like phone. love them internets!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

16. We only have a cell phone. I'm 25 and my husband is 27.

Neither one of us has been polled.

[LeftyMom]

17. in my 20's, cell phone only

[Dob Bole]

18. 22 landline only...disconnected cell because of $$$

[DeepModem Mom]

19. kick

[sandnsea]

20. 28 yo son, cell phone only

My daughter has both, but uses an answering machine. People under 50 tend to use answering machines too, learned that annoying little fact phone banking. So who are they polling? People resistant to new technologies, er, conservative people.

[Katha]

21. Twenty and only a cell phone; not been polled n/t

[Robbie67]

22. Something like 170,000,000 cell phones in US

they're not polling any of them

[GregD]

23. 53, both, never polled (and ready to march if needed!))

[Miami Liberal]

24. 29, both and have not been polled

:kick:

[seventhson]

27. Revised conclusions: 33% of young (and women) voters not being polled

Judging by this poll --- which I thinbk is a fair reflection of the populace even with such a small sample fully ONE THIRD of America has ONLY a cell phone.

If we extrapolate that the majority of those with cell phone users are young folks and women likely to vote for Kerry by a 60-40 margin (which I think are fair or even conservative numbers given my other - College - poll and given all that we know about the issues of war, choice and the draft) then my assassment is that

If all those being polled are 50-50 (being generous to Bush and paying undue attention to the noncell phone using polls) ---

And


The ONE THIRD of voters who have cell phones who are NOT being polled break 60-40 for Kerry

THEN


the RESULTS of the POPULAR VOTE will be:

53% Kerry to 47% Bush - OR a SIX POINT BLOWOUT!!!

Since the battleground states have college kids and cell phone users probably in relatively similar amounts they will break clearly for Kerry and the electoral college will alos be a blowout for Kerry!

This is based on MY DU polls HERE and based on factors which are NOT being considered by the Pollsters.

[merbex]

28. This came up at a sign visibility this morning

our youngest town committee member is 25 ALL HER FRIENDS HAVE CELL PHONES - no land line!!!!!

my own kids have cell phones and we get no house calls for them anymore

[rndmprsn]

29. both my sister and i only have mobile phones...i'm 31

almost all of my friends under 30, only have mobile's too...it's just a fact of life for many many under 30 people...when you cable broadband and a mobile with nationwide long distance etc...why would you need a land-line...anyhow this is the conclusion that me and almost all my friends have come too...even more so for college kids i might add.

btw...new phones are digital not cellular, hence the term mobile...i know i know it's nitpicky =]

[batchdem04]

30. cell phone only, never been polled, 24 years old.

[SCDem]

31. Land line only - but still not polled

But maybe that's cause I am a Yella Dog Democrat... and my name Glows blue in the phone book and directories since I have written and been wrote about in the local paper.

[redstateblues]

32. My 25 yr old daughter- cell phone only -Kerry voter

[Anaxamander]

33. I do not have a cell phone.

I only have a land line.

I have not been polled.

I'm 24.

[TrueAmerican]

34. OTHER: Cell Phone and VOIP/Vonage

I don't think they are calling VOIP lines either. I haven't been called.


Has anyone with VOIP been called?

[TalkingDog]

35. Polls

My husband is obviously worth tons of polling attention. He's been called at least 5 times. Me, NOT ONCE. My standard reply: "We do not participate in polls because we believe it pollutes the political process."

Without polls, politicians have to actually make an attempt to honestly address their platform, rather than weaving in the current winds of change.

He has the more incisive political mind and suggested that since we live in the South the pollsters feel they don't need to talk to me as, of course, I'll be voting like my husband. phhhhhtttt! (The truth is he voted like his wife, for Kerry)

We are both about to have November birthdays (yay us!) He is 46 and I am 45.

I will say that the hubster has a work-related cell phone, but it stays in the car. His logic is, I've got a phone at home and a phone in my office, why do I need to carry a phone? So it truly is for emergencies and work.

[Chelsea Patriot]

37. Land Line only and I've been polled twice!

[RawMaterials]

38. land line only, 25 - no $$$$$

Plus i like not being able to be called where ever i go. I like my privacy and caller id. I only answer the phone for a select group of people.

[Cats Against Frist]

39. I have a land line and a cell -- 29

Been polled twice on the land line -- Des Moines Register and Terrance.

[seventhson]

40. THANKS for all the responses! Keep 'em coming

I think this issue really tells the tale!

Kerry will win.

But Keep fighting!!!

[H3Dakota]

41. Cell only - several people...

Me - 38
My father - 62
My fiance - 43
My ex-husband - 47

*All* of us have cell phones only (and 3 of us are die-hard Democrats, btw) - why pay for a landline, too?!