The Great American Tectonic plates are moving - in pictures.

[TruthIsAll]

Today was the day that the tectonic plates stated to move.

Notice that Bush is flat on his back at 46% in the national state-weighted polling trend


Kerry’s win probability is approaching 100% as he opens up the battleground


Kerry’s projected national vote percentage is headed to 52%.


If Kerry gets 75% of the undecided vote, as he should, it’s a mini-landslide.


Kerry is surging in the Battleground states, especially Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Sorry Zog.


Kerry’s win probabilities in the battleground states approach 100% as he opens up 6-8% leads.


Kerry has pulled ahead in the independent poll average, thanks to The Economist, who only poll 3000.


The Bushmedia are still calling it a dead heat. They will continue to do so AFTER Kerry wins the election..


Bush job approval is down to 48%, and in the LOW forties in some very reputable polls, like the Economist and ARG.


The more polls that are averaged in a group average, the smaller the margin of error.


The Monte Carlo method simulates 5000 election trials. So the probability of a Kerry win is just
The number of trial wins divided by 5000. Right now its 99.3%.


EV simulation outcomes are normally distributed around Kerry’s mean (expected) electoral vote (326).




Interested in the latest polling results? Want an introduction to the methodology?
Then go here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[msongs]

1. so how does this take into account massive election fraud and the

electoral vote outcome. remember, it is those few states, not the many.

Msongs
Riverside CA

[TruthIsAll]

2. It don't. And it won't. That's for the lawyers to figure out.

We wuz robbed once. And did nothing

They will try to do it again. We will do something.

[CityHall]

3. The MonteCarlo sim is worthless

The assumptions are wrong: the underlying variables are correlated between states. You can't assume that the various state outcomes are independent random variables with distributions given by the polls. Factors like turnout, cell-phone voters, poll bias, and any sort of fraud are each likely to work in the same direction across states.

This analysis doesn't really add anything to the initial assumption that the poll means are the expected state means. On top of that, it doesn't factor in any movement between now and 11/2.

[TruthIsAll]

4. AM Kick

.

[AP]

5. In the primaries, there were huge swings among voters in last four days.

I think there will be huge swings in the last four days of the presidential race in the same direction things have been heading the last two weeks.