Arizona Is Going Blue This Year!

[NAO]

I've suspected it all along. My personal observations led me to strongly believe that Arizona will go for Kerry. The damn media keeps calling it a "solid red" state, a given for Bush.

Tonight I read a long thread on Daily KOS on the situation on the ground in Arizona. And I discovered that many others, who are working very closely with the Democratic Party and various grassroots efforts also believe that Arizona will go to Kerry.

On the Ground In Arizona
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/28/12256/138

[ThoughtCriminal]

1. AZ is purple

Hold your breath and it might go blue

[NMDemDist2]

2. look at my post from a couple days ago.... and polls show the

libertarian is taking 3% from Bush

STATE TOTALS of voter registration as of 10/25/2004

Ind 655,554

Dems 914,264

Libertarian 18,261

Repubs 1,055,252

total 2,643,331

http://www.azsos.gov/election/Active_Voter_Count.pdf

According to Zogby's poll on Oct. 21:

Mr. Bush holds a small lead among men, while Mr. Kerry holds an unusually small edge among women. A bright spot for Mr. Kerry here – he leads among independents by a 62% to 31% margin.

so let's do the math shall we?

Bush gets Repubs + Libertarians + 1/3 of Indies = 1,292,031 48.87%

Kerry gets Dems + 2/3 of Indies = 1,351,300 51.12%

we win by a comfortable 2.25% margin

feel better? so lets get those voters to the polls!

edited to add the numbers... can someone post it on Kos?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=938089&mesg_id=938102

[AIJ Alom]

3. Right on !!!!! BLUE ARIZONA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Confident]

4. say what??!!

[NMDemDist2]

8. just read the numbers in my link and weep

for joy :bounce:

[West Coast Democrat]

10. You don't sound very "confident"!

[Zensea]

5. My republican uncle is not voting for Bush

he's voting for Nader.
He's voted Republican all his life so that's one less vote for Bush in Arizona.

[NMDemDist2]

7. Nader isn't on the Ballot here

what gives with that?

[Zensea]

9. I heard this from my mother a month or two ago

I'd forgotten Nader wasn't on the ballot. (I live in New York)
I still don't think my uncle is going to vote for Bush though.
He's one of those old guard fiscal conservative WWII vets and is disgusted with Bush. He likes McCain though.

[SW FL Dem]

6. My family is in AZ - casting a total of

at least 7 votes for Kerry. Three of those votes went for Bush in 2000.

[AzDar]

11. I have harassed my neighbors.. I have harangued my family....

and I am still not through. I am also seeing a lot more K/E gear.. (especially after the debates!!) Arizona may not be a done deal.....

[DeepModem Mom]

12. kick