OK why should we all go goo goo over what ZOGBY says now ?

[Fluffdaddy]

All week we been looking at ZOGBY's polls Favoring Bush and saying ZOGBY does not know shit...............What happened ?

[Maat]

1. 'Cause he's saying what we want him to say!

n/t

[City Lights]

15. ROFL!

That pretty much sums it up. ;-)

[Kadie]

2. What did he say? I missed something.

[incapsulated]

3. He said Kerry would win

That's what happened.

lol. Now he is God, again.

:silly:

[eaprez]

4. Zogby is the pollmeister....I would never say that....he's the "BIBLE"

of pollsters even when he says Bush is winning. He predicted a year ago that this was an uphill fight for Bush.

[Clinton Crusader]

5. Zogby "knows shit"

He's been dead on in the last who-knows how many elections. I always trusted him, even when we're down. It's the only poll I trust.
:kick:

[featherman]

6. I never said that so whatever

you've got to keep state polling and/or tracking numbers in perspective. Zogby has been calling this for Kerry for quite sometime. Because he UNDERSTANDS what the numbers mean even if some DUers do not.

[movonne]

7. Well I guess that they didn't know shit....Polls up for bush, but a

Kerry win..does that make since..

[Joe Turner]

23. In a way it does

Zogby has said a number of times that unless Bush is up 5% or more in the polls he will lose. He is saying, I think, that most polls including his are not effectively capturing a much higher voter turnout for Kerry than Bush, much like in 2000 except even moreso.

In a way things have changed in the last few elections. It used to be that the republican vote was always underestimated by pollsters. In recent elections it has been the democratic vote that has been underestimated. But pollsters can only go with what their methodologies allow and turnout estimates generally have been way off the mark. It works towards Kerry.

[deadparrot]

8. I've always taken Zogby a little more seriously than other pollsters.

He was on the money in 1996 and 2000, at least in the nationwide polling. His state numbers have been off in the past, but he's still reliable as far as polls go (which, admittedly, isn't saying much).

Basically, I'd rather have him predicting a Kerry win than a * win.

[incapsulated]

13. "Basically, I'd rather have him predicting a Kerry win than a * win."

Agreed.

[demosincebirth]

16. AMEN!

[onehandle]

9. I never said that.

Zogby's been predicting a Kerry win since Spring. He came closest in 2000.

But I'm not going to stop working. For sure.

We will win, but we need to keep up the work. Period.

[Weembo]

10. He's still a dinosaur

Too many changes in the electorate. It's nice to have a job where you have enough wiggle room to never have to commit, and if you are close to the middle, you can say "Wow, I never saw that coming." and still get multiple clients the next season. Smoke, mirrors, and gre-gre.

[ranosgol]

11. I Agree

Polls are just crap..maybe if th epolls showed a huge lead for one candidate or other say 10-20 % it would be fair to say there is a clear leader.

This freaking 1-9 % polls are just dumb they mean nothing.

[On Par]

12. John Zogby,

John Zogby, the only pollster who came within 1% of correctly predicting the 2000 election, appearing on the Jon Stewart Daily Show, was asked a direct question as to who would win the election.

John Zogby said one word "KERRY!"

OP

[demosincebirth]

19. I love Zogby

[newyawker99]

24. Hi On Par!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Mr_Spock]

14. Because he put his REPUTATION on the line tonight!

He said his name would basically be Mudd if he wasn't right - he is fairly certain and he sees all the UNFILTERED information!

[bush equals idiot]

17. Those that said he didn't know shit

were only pumping up the others who knew he did know shit. But now we don't have to pump anybody up because we all like his shit.:silly:

[Mr_Spock]

20. Hmmm, the fecal matter is flying tonight :D

:D

[Fluffdaddy]

18. OK...............................Just asking

:)

[melody]

21. John had abnormal data for a few days because of web input

It happens...he takes web input and was targeted by the Shrubbers.

Zogby has *always* said it was going to be Kerry...even through all the BS poll shifts after the RNC convention.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi melody!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[autorank]

22. Here's why we should believe Zogby now:

There is obviously a disparity between pollsters current ability to measure the population and the tools necessary to measure that population. I got in a mini-debate about 2 months ago with a pollster who 'bitched me out' for questioning the methodology of polling. The DUer said that the demographics picked up by pollsters using land-lines were sufficient. I said that cell-users among the youth vote represented a key demographic.

I think Zogby is a guy with professional commitment and intellectual honesty. He knows that they may not be able to measure between 5 & 15% of the population and that the group not measured (the youth vote and many in some major urban areas) are heavy Kerry voters.

I think he's making a calculated guess based on good assumptions. He's thinking out of the box and I respect him for this.

The real concern is how we work and give to make this happen. Nevertheless, Zogby's move is an interesting event in American political history.

[demokatgurrl]

26. No. It ain't over till it's over, just like baseball.