Battleground Poll: Bush 50% Kerry 45% (aided ballot)

[tritsofme]

Unaided Ballot: Bush 46% Kerry 41%

Job Approval: 53%

This polls is conducted jointly by the Republican polling outfit "Tarrance Group" and Democratic outfit "Lake Snell and Perry"

They conduct the polls jointly and provided their own spin.

They start out the interview by simply asking who you plan to vote for President without listing names (unaided ballot) and they ask later in the survey with providing names (aided ballot)

http://www.tarrance.com/files/9936QFW7.pdf

[are_we_united_yet]

1. Two question:

1)Is the Republican outfit run by Karl Rove?
2)Is the Democratic outfit run by Zell Miller?

[59millionmorons]

2. 2000

They missed it by 5 points in 2000 too. Battleground is one of the worst performers. I just checked the numbers and in 2000 there exact numbers in there final poll was Bush 50-Gore 45. Maybe they didnt even due a poll this year and just used the numbers from 2000.

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[jezebel]

3. Is battleground the name of the poll, or is it the battleground states?

thanks

[59millionmorons]

4. It's a poll

With a bad track record.

[Jersey Devil]

5. Tarrance only appears in pres elections to tout the Repug

Their numbers in 2000 were ridiculous. Check their site after the elction is over - it will be gone, as it was in 2000 right after the election. It is totally bogus

[YankInLondon]

6. The Numbers Are Fine If You Know What To Look For

Three remarks. The % of undecided voters is 12% (these will prob. go 2-1 for Kerry, there's the challenger rule and the fact that many undecideds are people in the core pro-Democratic demographic, eg. women and young people).

Then you have a critical undersampling of young people and minorities. It's the same deal, not only will more people in these demographics vote but they'll go 2-1 for Kerry.

Lastly, this is a national poll. Bush has huge margins in places like Texas and Nebraska. The question is what will happen in the swing states. If Kerry runs even nationally he'll take Florida and Ohio.

If that doesn't convince you--look at the poll's "direction of the country" numbers.

Kerry hasn't won yet--keep up a full court press until all polls close--but the numbers are good.