Dow points to Kerry
Study says if the Dow loses more than 0.5% in six weeks before the election, incumbents lose.
October 29, 2004: 2:27 PM EDT
By Jacqueline S. Gold, CNN/Money contributing writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the historical performance of the Dow Jones industrial average is an indicator, John Kerry will be the 44th President of the United States.
According to a recent study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value from the end of September to Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow has lost 0.75 percent of its value over the past month.
This predictor has been true without exception every four years, from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/markets/election_dow/index.htm