My state-by-state predictions - tell me where you disagree

[RememberTheCoup]

I'm probably being overly cautious or pessimistic about a lot of these, but tell me if you think I'm way off on any of them. I'm using the electoral-vote.com format of strong/weak/barely, Bush/Kerry, but these are just my own guesses -- probably as accurate as any poll, right?

I'm especially interested in areas where you think I have one state more toward the Kerry side and another state more toward the Bush side that you think should be reversed (e.g. "I think XX is a safer state than YY but you have YY as weak Kerry and XX as barely Kerry"). I know some of my regional designations are a little weird too. And I'm counting all the "barely" states along with the tossups as "battleground". I welcome any suggestions.


KERRY
------------

West Coast:
CA 55 strong Kerry
OR 7 strong Kerry
WA 11 strong Kerry
total 73

East Coast:
ME 4 strong Kerry
VT 3 strong Kerry
MA 12 strong Kerry
NY 31 strong Kerry
RI 4 strong Kerry
CT 7 strong Kerry
NJ 15 strong Kerry
DE 3 strong Kerry
MD 10 strong Kerry
DC 3 strong Kerry
total 92

Midwest:
MN 10 weak Kerry
WI 10 strong Kerry
MI 17 weak Kerry
IL 21 strong Kerry
PA 21 weak Kerry
total 79

Grand Total Kerry
244


BUSH
------------

Alaska & Far West:
AK 3 strong Bush
ID 4 strong Bush
MT 3 strong Bush
WY 3 strong Bush
UT 5 strong Bush
AZ 10 strong Bush
total 28

West:
ND 3 strong Bush
SD 3 strong Bush
NE 5 strong Bush
KS 6 strong Bush
OK 7 strong Bush
TX 34 strong Bush
MO 11 strong Bush
LA 9 strong Bush
total 78

Midwest/Upper South:
IN 11 strong Bush
KY 8 strong Bush
WV 5 strong Bush
VA 13 strong Bush
total 37

South:
TN 11 strong Bush
MS 6 strong Bush
AL 9 strong Bush
total 26

Southeast:
NC 15 strong Bush
SC 8 strong Bush
GA 15 strong Bush
total 38

Grand Total Bush
207


BATTLEGROUND
------------
HI 4 barely Kerry
AR 6 barely Bush
NH 4 barely Kerry
NV 5 barely Bush
CO 9 barely Bush
NM 5 tossup
OH 20 tossup
FL 27 barely Bush
IA 7 barely Bush
total 87

[coloradodem2005]

1. I would put VA and NC as battleground.

They may be weak Bush, but I think VA may be possible.

[rhino47]

2. I think ohio and pa are stronger kerry .

[RememberTheCoup]

5. I have PA as weak K and OH as tossup

Would you call OH barely Kerry or weak Kerry?

Do you really think PA is strong Kerry?

[funkybutt]

3. LA won't be a strong Bush

Those polls are bogus. It'll be closer. We have a chance here.

[SmileyBoy]

4. For the life of me, I'll never understand how Hawaii became a swing state.

It boggles the mind.

[RememberTheCoup]

8. Well, I'm skeptical myself.

But since Dems are doing some campaigning there I figured there must be something in their own internals. If it was just national polls I might discount it.

[Langis]

6. AZ is not strong Bush

Polls show Bush up by 5, but I have a feeling Kerry can take it.

[SuburbanGA]

7. I say we get 284

WA,OR,CA,HI,NM,IA.MN,WI,IL,MI,OH,PN,NY,VT,NH,ME,MA,RI,CT,NJ,DE,MD,DC

[SaintLouisBlues]

9. Disagree on MO strong Bush

Shrub was at 48% in this week's STL Post-Dispatch poll, with Kerry within the MOE.

When Mo goes blue, it will officially be an electoral landslide.

Some wishful thinking, but we have to remain positive here for the big final push.

Wish me luck, my precinct sucks (mostly Shrub)

[Claire Beth]

10. I don't care what the polls say....

I don't believe for a minute that TN is STRONG Bush. He may be up a few points but not a double digits. I talk to people from all across the state and there is way to much Kerry support for * to be have a HUGE lead.

[goodhue]

11. MN is stronger for Kerry than WI

WI, MN and IA are all still battleground but are leaning Kerry. Of the three, Wisconsin has greatest likelihood to go Bush.

HI is not battleground.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

20. I agree with that assessment

The Twin Cities are about 80-20 Kerry, and even the suburbs appear to be 50-50, judging by the lawn signs. Add in the Iron Range (strong labor tradition and organized Democrats), and various pissed-off Republicans elsehwere, and you have MN going for Kerry. Not to mention Jesse Ventura's recent endorsement, which will probably sway a few guys from the beer suburbs.

[steve2470]

12. I think FL will go for Kerry, unless Jeb steals it nt

[Pump Man]

13. bush needs 63 out 87 kerry needs 26 out 87 according to your poll

ARKANSAS IN PLAY louisiana within 5% big effort to get vote out RETIRING BREAUX ORGANIZING POLLS DO NOT TRACE THIS VOTES do not count WV AND VIRGINIA VOTE---http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6092749
THEY KEEP STARTING NEW POLLS KERRY KICKING ASS

[RememberTheCoup]

14. Okay -- NEW PREDICTIONS based on your input

I'd like to come to eventually come to a rough consensus. These are based on suggestions in posts #1-12. But remember: I want to remain on the cautious side. Keep those suggestions coming!

OH changed from tossup to barely Kerry
PA changed from weak Kerry to strong Kerry
HI changed from barely Kerry to weak Kerry (added to Kerry total)
WI changed from strong Kerry to weak Kerry
MN left as is (weak Kerry)
IA changed from barely Bush to tossup
VA changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
NC changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
LA changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
AZ changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
MO changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
TN changed from strong Bush to weak Bush
FL changed from barely Bush to tossup (I'm still too wary of vote theft there to make it any stronger for Kerry)


KERRY
------------

Hawaii & West Coast:
HI 4 barely Kerry
CA 55 strong Kerry
OR 7 strong Kerry
WA 11 strong Kerry
total 77

East Coast:
ME 4 strong Kerry
VT 3 strong Kerry
MA 12 strong Kerry
NY 31 strong Kerry
RI 4 strong Kerry
CT 7 strong Kerry
NJ 15 strong Kerry
DE 3 strong Kerry
MD 10 strong Kerry
DC 3 strong Kerry
total 92

Midwest:
MN 10 weak Kerry
WI 10 weak Kerry
MI 17 weak Kerry
IL 21 strong Kerry
PA 21 strong Kerry
total 79

Grand Total
248


BUSH
------------

AK & Far West:
AK 3 strong Bush
ID 4 strong Bush
MT 3 strong Bush
WY 3 strong Bush
UT 5 strong Bush
AZ 10 weak Bush
total 28

West:
ND 3 strong Bush
SD 3 strong Bush
NE 5 strong Bush
KS 6 strong Bush
OK 7 strong Bush
TX 34 strong Bush
MO 11 weak Bush
LA 9 weak Bush
total 78

Midwest/Upper South:
IN 11 strong Bush
KY 8 strong Bush
WV 5 strong Bush
VA 13 weak Bush
total 37

South:
TN 11 weak Bush
MS 6 strong Bush
AL 9 strong Bush
total 26

Southeast:
NC 15 weak Bush
SC 8 strong Bush
GA 15 strong Bush
total 38

Grand Total
207


BATTLEGROUND
------------
AR 6 barely Bush
NH 4 barely Kerry
NV 5 barely Bush
CO 9 barely Bush
NM 5 tossup
OH 20 barely Kerry
FL 27 tossup
IA 7 tossup

total 83

[PSU84]

15. HI, NH, and OHIO are definitely for Kerry

NM looks like it will go to Bush (but is still in play)

I think Kerry will win FL

Unfortuantely Wisconsin is not "strong Kerry" according to the polls. I think Kerry will win WI, and if he does not carry FL, he MUST win WI.

HI 4 Kerry
AR 6 Bush
NH 4 Kerry
NV 5 Bush
CO 9 Bush
NM 5 Bush
OH 20 Kerry
FL 27 Kerry
IA 7 Bush

[mvd]

17. I don't think NM will go Bush

Zogby's state polls may be wrong here.

[Contrary1]

16. I predict

that there will be an upset in Colorado, and it will go Kerry.

[Zynx]

18. I think we pick off FL and keep IA as well.

[RememberTheCoup]

19. MORE NEW PREDICTIONS based on your input

These changes are based on suggestions in posts #13-18. Almost all of the suggestions have been toward Kerry's favor. I hope you're all right. I prefer to be more cautious, but I'll go with the flow. Keep those suggestions coming!

NH changed from barely Kerry to weak Kerry (added to Kerry total)
AR changed from barely Bush to tossup
NM changed from tossup to barely Kerry
CO changed from barely Bush to tossup
IA changed (again) from tossup to barely Kerry


KERRY
------------

Hawaii & West Coast:
HI 4 barely Kerry
CA 55 strong Kerry
OR 7 strong Kerry
WA 11 strong Kerry
total 77

East Coast:
ME 4 strong Kerry
VT 3 strong Kerry
NH 4 weak Kerry
MA 12 strong Kerry
NY 31 strong Kerry
RI 4 strong Kerry
CT 7 strong Kerry
NJ 15 strong Kerry
DE 3 strong Kerry
MD 10 strong Kerry
DC 3 strong Kerry
total 96

Midwest:
MN 10 weak Kerry
WI 10 weak Kerry
MI 17 weak Kerry
IL 21 strong Kerry
PA 21 strong Kerry
total 79

Grand Total Kerry 252


BUSH
------------

AK & Far West:
AK 3 strong Bush
ID 4 strong Bush
MT 3 strong Bush
WY 3 strong Bush
UT 5 strong Bush
AZ 10 weak Bush
total 28

West:
ND 3 strong Bush
SD 3 strong Bush
NE 5 strong Bush
KS 6 strong Bush
OK 7 strong Bush
TX 34 strong Bush
MO 11 weak Bush
LA 9 weak Bush
total 78

Midwest/Upper South:
IN 11 strong Bush
KY 8 strong Bush
WV 5 strong Bush
VA 13 weak Bush
total 37

South:
TN 11 weak Bush
MS 6 strong Bush
AL 9 strong Bush
total 26

Southeast:
NC 15 weak Bush
SC 8 strong Bush
GA 15 strong Bush
total 38

Grand Total Bush 207


BATTLEGROUND
------------
AR 6 tossup
NV 5 barely Bush
CO 9 tossup
NM 5 barely Kerry
OH 20 barely Kerry
FL 27 tossup
IA 7 barely Kerry

battleground total 79