Charlie Cook is referring to Kerry in the past tense

[RummyTheDummy]

Fucking douche bag. Just have the balls to say it's over Chuckles if that;s what you think.

[montana500]

1. who is charlie cook? nm

nm

[helpisontheway]

2. What is he saying?

That it is over?

[President Kerry]

3. a * mouthpiece.. some adviser

[Awsi Dooger]

4. He's not a Bush advisor; Charlie Cook is a political analyst

He has a very good staff and website, looking at every race in the country with excellent info.

The other day Cook said Kerry would likely win. DUers like to rip him as rightwing, but I think he's fair.

Today's Bin Laden story figures to help Bush. Let's hope not, but on face value that's the sensible way to look at it. I have heard the phrase "war on terrorism" more in the last two hours than in the previous two weeks combined. I saw Cook say he could spin the benefit either way, but only the manner helping Bush would be logical.

[tomfodw]

5. Why should it possibly help Bush? OBL is still OUT THERE!

If Bush had caught him, like he promised he would, OBL would not be able to still make these threatening tapes.

[atre]

12. Because people are stupid

... every time the Bush Administration raises the terror alert, he gets a jolt in his approvals and in his numbers relative to Kerry. Scaring people always has helped Bush. I don't know why this scary message would be any different.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

6. Cook is a long time Repuke.

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. How Do You Know That?

nt

[KharmaTrain]

7. It's Too Soon To Tell...I Say Little Changes

Cook reacted to the event, didn't take a step back and see this just polarizes sides further, it changes no minds...even with the undecideds.

Those scared shit of bin Laden are in the Bunnypants hive and anyone who now claims their vote is changed wasn't our in the first place (and hopefully not counted).

As is starting to come out, this points out not how safe this country is with Bunnypants, but how much danger lurks if this bastard remains and the complete clusterfuck this regime's Middle East policy is.

Things are moving so damn fast now that I don't even think the bin Laden tape will be the lead story by Sunday, yet be issue #1 on people's minds on Tuesday.

Cheers!

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I agree, very little changes; but the wild card is married white women

DUers don't like generalizations, especially regarding a block they belong to. Many times I have mentioned this and been swamped with trivia like, "I'm a married white woman and I would never vote for Bush!"

Swell. But every poll and reliable study indicates married white women and working class, non-college educated men in the $20,000-50,000 wage bracket are the most volatile groups, available to swing back and forth even in the midst of a campaign. Kerry's poll slide after the Republican convention was due to women siding with Bush after his phony patriotic speech. They returned to Kerry after debate #1. The male vote is locked in at Bush +10. It is always women who change course and will decide this election, particularly married women.

The security mom tag is not a myth. Kerry needs to emphasize social and economic issues that women prioritize over the final three days, to offset any edge the Bin Laden story potentialy has among that group.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Point Taken, But Security Moms Are Lots Of Other Issues

I think we're splitting some real fine hairs here...and which women these "Security Moms" are.

First, there is no past reference to this group, and IMHO, it's a Rovian term used to define the right wing women who would vote Repugnican no matter what Bunnypants does, but they don't fit the Fundamentalist or other niche group.

I just happen to know several married women that this vote wouldn't change one bit, but just get them madder as it shows how inept this regime is...but that's not their key issue, and not really that big with many of the women you describe.

Yes, they're worried about an A-rab flying an airplane into their YMCA while the kids are at soccer practice, but there's a bunch of other issues that are of more importance...health care, education, the economy and then the Iraq war.

Again, if this is an issue that moves that many "undecideds", they weren't undecided in the first place...just not polled or polled properly.

Again, bin Laden's presence must be the issue, not that he's "attacking Bunnypants", like it appears the spin is gonna be.

Cheers!

[SammyWinstonJack]

9. I must be thick as a brick!

How does this help the chimp? Why won't the media whores play the clip where the chimp says OBL is not a concern of his, that he doesn't spend much time thinking about OBL? And that was six months after he vowed to hunt down OBL and said he was wanted "dead or alive." I don't care if the chimp claimed he never said that. He's on record saying it and you know if it were a Dem Pres, the media whores, this close to an election, would be playing that clip more times then they played the "Dean Scream". The bottom line is the chimp said OBL was behind the 9/11 attacks and he said he would hunt down OBL, that he was our #1 objective. He failed to get OBL when he had the chance. Instead he sifted the "War on Terror" to Saddam and Iraq and then said that OBL was not a concern of his. The chimp should be toast today with OBL appearing on tape. I don't see how any person with more then two brain cells could see this as a positive for the chimp.

[President Kerry]

16. so let's see - first he predicts Kerry win and then

talk about him like he's a done deal? Doesn't sound like smart analysis to me.. sorry bro

[SeveneightyWhoa]

8. I think you're thinking of Charlie Black?

That's who I was thinking of at first, too. I was about to respond with "Goddamn that guy is a creepy fuck!".

[President Kerry]

15. that must be it.. a creepy guy with a drawl n/t

[John_H]

14. Charlie Cook is a southern wingnut who always ALWAYS skews

his predictions and commentary for the rethugs. You can take this to the bank--Cook calls EVERY close race--from congressional races to the big one--for the rethugs in the days leading to the election.