New Zogby state polls

[pabloseb]

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent.


Link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=6&u=/nm/20041029/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

As usual, weird stuff, but overall looking well, especially if you look at *'s numbers. Big oddity is NM, but Kerry can easily win the EC even if he loses NM (which I think he will not, but it's going to be close).

[pabloseb]

1. Kick

:hi:

[Rjnerd]

2. Polls in NM will undersample Native Americans

Households without telephones can be as high as 20% in native american communities. (not just cell only, but no phone at all) From someone at NIH that was trying to survey for childhood vaccination compliance.

[pabloseb]

3. Good point! n/t

[Beaverhausen]

4. I thought Kerry was ahead in Michigan

[maxsolomon]

5. must... have... michigan

can't do without it.

[lancdem]

9. He is

We'll win it with strong turnout.

[sonicx]

6. both Bush and Kerry camp say Kerry is ahead in OH internal polls

[lancdem]

7. Kerry will win MI and he's not behind by 9 in NM

The Ohio and Florida numbers are very good, though, because of how low Bush's share of the vote is.

[Christiandem]

8. that is not looking that good

I mean we are down in Michigan, and most importantly in Ohio. we need to take both of those states. If not, we are in trouble

[lancdem]

11. The Bush campaign acknowledged tonight

it will not win Ohio.

[earthside]

12. Where did that info come from? n/t

[Beaverhausen]

13. No repub has won the White House without winning OH

so this is good news indeed!

[pscot]

14. Got a reference for that?

N/T

[Beaverhausen]

19. I hear the pundits say it all the time

I just googled and found this

http://www.iht.com/articles/527888.html

"Burton helps explain why John Kerry and his fellow Democrats have high hopes for Ohio - and why they still faces high hurdles in trying to win it.

Victory here could be pivotal: No Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

No surprise, then, that Bush has visited 18 times since 2001."

[Nadeaufan17]

16. WOH

I'm confident that Ohio will go blue with good turnout, but why the hell would the Bush campaign say something like that. I don't believe it at all.

[sonicx]

20. Aides say stuff to the reporters about internal polls all the time

[Nadeaufan17]

21. "WILL not win"

The part i'm refering to is the will not win part. That is saying they have already conceeded the state to Kerry, which they would never say 4 days before the election.

[fujiyama]

18. We're NOT DOWN in MI!!!

I'm so fuckin sick of this whiny shit. don't care what Zogby's screwed up state polls have to say. I also doubt we're tied in CO. I think Bush has a larger edge there than Zogby's polls show. I also don't think Bush is up 9 in NM.

We aren't down in MI or PA, if we're up in OH. It just doesn't work that way.

If we're losing MI, we're losing in a landslide.

[almostallhere]

10. kick

[Anarcho-Socialist]

15. New Mexico Bush* 51-42 percent? That doesn't seem right

I would have said NM as safe Kerry.

[tritsofme]

17. Zogby has been all over the place with these state polls

Bush up in Michigan? Give me a break.

Take these Zogby state polls with a grain of salt, and pay good attention to his national numbers.

[fujiyama]

22. Thank you

for some sanity.

Even the RW Mitchel poll has been showing Kerry going up in MI in the last few days. He's now ahead by 6 points in MI.

I don't know about the election itself, but Kerry will win MI by atleast 5.