Ya'all need a slap in the face and here it is!

[Sean Reynolds]

Now I understand you're all going nuts here about whether or not who this video tape will and will not hurt. Well I've got news for you, the chances of it hurting EITHER candidate is small.

Face it, the people that are supporting Kerry will continue to support Kerry, even with this video coming out. The people supporting Bush will continue to support Bush, even with this video coming out.

That means not much has changed in the past 24 hours.

But on top of all that, it's Friday! The worst news day of the whole week. Why? Because when people come home from work they're not going to sit down and watch the nightly news. They're probably getting ready for the weekend. Also, what's Sunday? HALLOWEEN! That means a lot of people will be at Halloween parties tonight and tomorrow....that and trick-or-treating with their kids. So they'll probably only hear a blurb or two about the story, but nothing concrete enough for it to sway them either way.

Then by the time Monday comes the news of bin Laden's tape will be gone. Either for better or worse (depending on which way you look at it). All focus will return back to the election and nothing will change.

It's always been known that the best day for a bad story to leak is on a Friday, because people just aren't as aware as they were during the week. They're enjoying spending time with their family, not wondering about bin Laden.

If this had happened on Wednesday, I think it'd mean a lot more. But it didn't. Instead of it dominating the rest of the week, it'll fizzle out by the end of the weekend.

[annerevere]

1. Good point about timing. I surely hope you're right (eom)

[medeak]

2. government knew of tape yesterday

msnbc reported... hmmm.. now it all makes sense.

[apnu]

3. I second that emotion!

Well said Sean!

:yourock:

[real democrat]

8. I will agree with;

Sean. This is just political garbage sent up by Karl Rove, and his fake OBL tape. I will state, this tape is old, been edited who knows how many times,
The people voting for Kerry will be there on Tues. Nov. 2nd.

Now go to bed, wake up tomorrow, and take a deep breath.

[venus]

23. The OBL tape is not "FAKE".

Bottom line is, Kerry surrogates (not Kerry himself) should strongly drill it that OBL is still on the loose because of Bushco incompetence.

That should be our meme. We all know the media comes here to gauge our reactions and get news stories so they can immediately transfer them into "some Dems say..." or whatever. They are too lazy to do their own homework.

After all, we do have Kerry's back. Let's suck it up. Gut check time.

I'm not saying let's not discuss, but we need to do a disciplined analysis, not freak out. Just my humble opinion.

[Purveyor]

4. Thanks. I needed that after watching the 1st half of Hardball... n/m

[GeorgeBushytail]

5. I want to see the unedited video

[PartyPooper]

6. Very pragmatic and encouraging post!

Thank you!

:hi:

[shelley806]

7. Thanks for your thoughtful post!

I have PEADs! (pre-election anxiety syndrome as per K. Olbermann!)

[Christiandem]

9. Reassuring post

I think we all need to calm down, let Kerry's campaign do its job, and instead of freaking out, GO AND GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!! The only thing that will stop us is ourselves now (and election fraud)

[baltodemvet]

10. I think you're basically right

and so does Kerry, judging by his statement. But it's possible that one campaign of the other could stumble over this in a way that could change the dynamic.

I suspect that Bush is more likely to do so because he's the more desperate. Kerry doesn't need to swing for the fences: Bush does.

[Abelman]

11. Good point

I hadn't seen it that way.

[despairing optimist]

12. As long as the story is doing the fizzling and not NYC

or any other place, for that matter, that's fine with me. The only mushrooms I like are in omelettes.

[hippiegranny]

13. this only reinforces

that the whole incident is NOT positive for the booshies. Cause you know damn well if it was the long touted Rove October Surprise, it would have happened earlier this week for maximum effect. I think they pulled strings to keep it off the news until today because they knew it was bad and holding off would lessen the impact against the little pinhead. Also, if it was Rove's O.S. they definitely would have sprung it earlier to help diffuse the explosives story.

[Sean Reynolds]

15. I agree....which is why I feel it came out today.

I heard that Bush knew about the tape and tried to stop them from being released. Obviously bin Laden is Bush's vulnerable spot because it only shows that he hasn't kept his word (hunting down the terrorists). If Bush really wanted to make this his October surprise, it'd of been released around Wednesday...that's almost one week for the public to digest. Now they'll have about a day of this before things go back to typical weekend news.

[Beetwasher]

17. BINGO!!!!!!

Very astute!

Bin Laden did this on his own and it's ALL ABOUT HIM, not any of the candidates. He knew HE would get the most exposure now. It builds HIS legend and HIS ego and helps HIM.

[doni_georgia]

24. Great pic!

Hadn't seen that one before. Give Fido a couple extra Milk Bones and I'll kick in half a steak. Good doggie!

Mac in Ga

[geek tragedy]

14. The best response: GOTV

[steve2470]

16. great analysis and I do hope you are right ! :-) nt

[w4rma]

18. Get to work folks. Russert is correct: "Osama Tape is a Jump Ball"

I disagree with Sean Reynolds. Folks are paying attention now. It's time to use that attention that they are paying the candidates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1220415

[Beetwasher]

19. Yes, The Bin Laden Tape Helps................BIN LADEN!!!!

People, this in not about Bush OR Kerry, it's about BIN LADEN! The man has his own ego, his own motives and his own legend and place in history. This is about maximum exposure for HIM. It is a WILD CARD in regard to the campaign. I have faith in Kerry to handle it properly.

[baltodemvet]

20. concurring opinion

DHinMI (whoever that is) agrees

http://www.dailykos.com/

[priapis]

21. More Important Tuesday Forcast; RAIN ............ shit.

[karlrschneider]

22. Heehee..."fizzle" one of my favorite words.

:D

[WillyT]

25. Damn You Sean... Being Reasonable And Reassuring !!!

How DARE you???

Sorry, had to get into this forum's particular motif, LOL!!!

:silly:

Hey dude. Kerry in a landslide.

:hi: