CNET says bettings sites are betting on Bush!!

[johnnyrocket]

Crap, I just hope a lot of people are going to lose a LOT of money! That would be icing on the cake, when Kerry wins!
--------------------------------
The bets are in--Bush to win

George W. Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's presidential elections, going by online betting patterns.

Although U.S. opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate President Bush from his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, customers of Betfair, an online betting exchange, have overwhelmingly backed the Republican candidate.

Betfair's latest figures show 2.3 million pounds ($4.2 million) have been wagered on Bush, while Kerry has attracted only 680,000 pounds ($1.25 million) in bets. Bush is now at 1-5 odds to stay in office, whereas gamblers can still get odds of 2-1 on Kerry to win.

Betfair said its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls. The patterns correctly predicted that Australia's Prime Minister John Howard would comfortably secure a surprise victory in last month's general election.


http://news.com.com/The+bets+are+in--Bush+to+win/2100-1023_3-5432489.html?tag=cd.top

[indigobusiness]

1. 2-1 Odds...I'll take that bet

That is surprising.

[trespam]

2. Ignore the polls and the gamblers

Has anyone done a thorough study of the pollsters and the gamblers? I bet not. We always get 1 sample point, a couple at best. No long term statistics. Just like the talking heads on television. They should have a special meter above the head of each talking head to indicate the reliability of the words coming out of their mouths.

[ninainsf]

3. In case you were thinking to sign up at betfair,

I just tried but it's apparently not legal to submit bets from within the US,

[indigobusiness]

6. Ladbrokes line is down...

have you checked there?

http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_portal?action=do_lang_splash&form_name=lang_splash&LANG=en&STYLE=en&VIEW=uk&LAYOUT=default

[Confident]

18. Ladbrokes odds

You have to bet £7 on Bush to win £4; £4 bet on Kerry wins £5

[newyawker99]

15. Hi ninainsf!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[mtnester]

4. Just means that it is trueth e tax cuts only benefited wealthy Republicans

the rest of us don't have spare money to fling away on gambling

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Those are the correct odds: Bush a 1/5 favorite is looney

The highest I ever saw at a reputable betting establishment was Bush 4/11 and Kerry 2/1, prior to the first debate. That's roughly a 2.5 to 1 favorite, man to man.

A friend just called me and said he sampled the offshore betting groups in the last few hours. I did that yesterday, pre-Osama. Nothing has changed. Bush remains either a 10/13 or 5/7 favorite, with Kerry correspondingly at 11/10 or 6/5.

For reference purposes, that's roughly equivalent to a 1.5 or 2 point favorite in a football game.

(on edit: whoops, this was meant as a response to post #5)

[indigobusiness]

5. Sports.com and Sportsbook.com have FAR different odds

Bush 10-13

Kerry 11-10

[RoadRunner]

8. What they didn't say is most of the $4.2 mil was bet by Bill Bennet.

Once a gambler, always a gambler.

:smoke:

[endnote]

9. The gamblers have the same info we have. Perhaps less.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Agreed, they have the same info, but understand odds much better

For example, even though I think Kerry will win and want it desperately, I wouldn't hesitate to wager on Bush if the odds offered great value, like 2/1. Similarly, there is no way I would bet on Kerry if I had to give 1/2 or anything close. That's what screws sports bettors. They have no trouble giving 7 ponts on their favorite team even when it's a stupid bet.

Betting odds are a good estimation of true probability because they are the consensus of thousands of people, tens of thousands if not more in the case of a presidential election. The odds right now are actually closer to even than an average of the national polls would suggest. That indicates political bettors understand stuff like the 50% rule, and the likely break of undecideds toward the challenger.

If the odds move prior to the election, that man is the likely winner.

[Rebellious Republican]

10. These figures are in pounds? That tells me they cater to people in

another country, yes?

Then that would mean that they are not here and have no true feel for the mood in this country! Also, gamblers often bet on long shots, the pay off is higher, no?

Just like business investments, the higher the risk, the more money, yes?

[tomfodw]

11. There are some "election exchanges" in the USA that are going for Kerry

We can't legally gamble on this kind of thing in the US (unlike in the UK where you can legally bet on just about anything). But there are some election "exchanges" and "futures markets" where you can sort of "trade" on the candidates like they were commodities, and Kerry has been rising there this week.

[harpo]

12. Suckers!!

[phish420]

13. Tradesports Chart

% chance Bush will be re-elected:

?1099101377

[GaryL]

16. Same as 2000 w/Gore.

Guess who won?

[oasis]

17. It's a good bet that 90 percent of those bettors are white males. A large

percent will vote for Bush. :think:

[montana500]

19. duh. most heavy gamblers are loser Repubs that are self involved

nm

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

20. these are the same freaks

who lost money on the tech bubble

[doni_georgia]

21. This is in the UK - not exactly American voters waging the bets folks