An incumbent who can't break 50% is in real trouble; Bush can't break 47%

[TruthIsAll]

In the 18 polls averaged in the Election model, Kerry and Bush are exactly tied at 46.89%!

An incumbent who can’t break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he’s ahead.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

But, but....
47% is Bush's CEILING.
And it's Kerry's FLOOR.

Kerry gets the bulk of the undecided. That's why he has a 95% probability of winning the popular vote.

The Bush media are still calling it a dead heat. They will continue to do so AFTER Kerry wins the election.

Here's a graph of the last 18 national polls:


Want more of this?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[inmania]

1. thanks from a fellow math-lover

I have been enjoying your posts for weeks now - often the brightest news in the day!

[oscar111]

2. Great posts, TA! Keep 'em coming!

we eat them up. I dont post a re every time, but i DO read every one. You have lurkers enjoying your posts.

PS the lettering in the first link you have here, is too small to make out. Pls do BIG lettering in future keys. Small lettering is 2nd most common site error. In the graph i now chatting about, is kerry the sine wave rising to meet the collapsing, eviscerated, ravaged, dry-rotted, devasted Bush line?

[TruthIsAll]

3. Just made 'em bigger. Thanks.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kerry is Blue, Bush is Red in all the graphs.

tia

[candy331]

4. ABC shows 50% for Bush. n/t

[TruthIsAll]

5. Yes, it's on the graph and included in the 18-poll average.

They are propping Bush up so he can Diebold America.

[osaMABUSh]

7. Election is being reported as a dead heat so Kerry is ahead

This article is a month old (10.01.04) and it says:

"If and when Kerry succeeds in narrowing or eliminating the polling gap between him and Bush, the media will report a “dead heat” when, in fact, Kerry will be positioned for victory."

The average of the polls puts it at dead heat. Historically on E-Day the challenger picks up a point or two while the incumbent stays the same or loses a point.

Kerry is positioned for victory.

[TruthIsAll]

10. The only question: How BIG a Kerry margin?

tia

[nicktom]

8. What do you predict and when will you post the effects,

of polls reflecting the new OBL tape. How long does it take for current events to reflect the polls? By the way I really appreciate your posts, they are very comforting. Thanks for all your work.

[TruthIsAll]

9. My prediction will come on Monday PM

I will post continuously until then.

The polls DO NOT reflect today's view. Both national and state polls are taken over anywhere from 2-7 days. Even the tracking polls show an AVERAGE of the last 3 days.

So we can assume, based on the trends in virtually all the polls, that Kerry is FURTHER ahead than the numbers suggest - and we will see today's numbers on Monday.

And on Tuesday he will do better than the final Monday polling numbers.