If Bush “wins”, it means the election was stolen in Dieboldian Cyberspace.

[TruthIsAll]

Now we know that if Bush “wins”, it means the election was stolen in Dieboldian Cyberspace.

Bush is flat on his back at 46% in both the national poll averages and the weighted-average state polls.



Kerry’s win probability is approaching 100% as he opens up the battleground



Kerry’s projected national vote percentage is headed to 52%.



If Kerry gets 75% of the undecided vote, as he should, it’s a mini-landslide.



Kerry is surging in the Battleground: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania .



Kerry’s win probabilities in the battleground states approach 100% as he opens up 6-8% leads.



Kerry has pulled ahead in the independent poll average, thanks to The Economist, who only poll 3000.



The Bush media are still calling it a dead heat. They will continue to do so AFTER Kerry wins the election.



Bush job approval is down to 48%, and in the LOW forties in some reputable polls (Economist and ARG)



The more polls averaged in a group, the smaller the margin of error.



The Monte Carlo method simulates 5000 election trials. So the probability of a Kerry win is just
The number of trial wins divided by 5000. Right now its at 99%.



EV simulation outcomes are normally distributed around Kerry’s mean (expected) electoral vote. .





Interested in the latest polling results? Want an introduction to the methodology?
Then go here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[claudiajean]

1. I have really appreciated your election model statistics...

..all during the campaign!

Thanks for the work you have done on putting this together and keeping it updated for months!

:) :) :)

[Skittles]

9. TRUTHISALL ROCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I do periodic searches on TIA's posts lest I MISS something. Yes INDEED!!! :thumbsup:

[ochazuke]

2. So, after the Diebolding of America...

what will we do?

I will not tolerate another stolen election! I want to see people quitting their jobs, boycotting, marching on Washington, civil disobedience...

THE FULL GHANDI.

[althecat]

3. Marshall Mathers will be leading the revolution...

.. all we have to do is stick on a hoody and follow. Check out the video.

http://www.gnn.tv/content/eminem_mosh.html

[liberalmuse]

4. But, I wonder...

Would all the desparate acts these past couple of weeks by the Bush administration be indication they have the election sewn up via electronic fraud, or not?

[StupidFOX]

5. Not even the Dark Side...

can manipulate votes that much. Solid Kerry win. No doubt

[depakid]

6. The Osama tape now gives them more cover

to rationalize a stolen election and ward off the statisticians.

That's a pernicous development, IMHO.

[althecat]

7. Too true DK... too fucking true....

[Awsi Dooger]

8. There's one thing that cracks me up

Your election model is based on polls, national and state. Plus an allocation of undecided voters. 99% win probability. Actually, approaching 100% as I look at today's post.

Throughout DU, it's asserted our poll numbers are actually severely low. Cell phones. Pollster bias. Hispanic and minority upswings, especially in the battleground states. New registers. Unprecedented Democratic motivation after 2000. I've seen repeated estimates national and state polls are understating Kerry by 3-7 percent. The word landslide is hardly uncommon here.

So really, if we adjust those polls upward by that amount, or anything close, Kerry has much more than a 100% probability. I think he has enough votes to win in 2004 and 2008.

That's going to be one hell of a Diebold theft.

Oh, I forgot. We must keep that cynical crying towel, and a no-damn-fair blanket, nearby. Just in case.