11% Of Bush Voters Switching To Kerry This Year (NYT)

[THUNDER HANDS]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/30/politics/campaign/30voter.html?oref=login

And 7% who voted for Gore are switching to Bush this time.

It's a swing of 4 points and it could (and I believe WILL) decide this election!

[yardwork]

1. I find it hard to believe that 7% of Gore voters are switching to chimpy

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. here's more from the article

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster working for Mr. Kerry, said people's memories of how they voted four years earlier tended to be unreliable.

"If you ask people today who they voted for in 2000, Bush would have had a six-point lead," he said, whereas in fact he lost the popular vote to Mr. Gore by a half-million. The difference is attributable to what pollsters call "the halo effect," a desire to associate with the winner.

Still, Mr. Mellman said, polling shows that "there are many more people who are moving from Bush to Kerry than are moving from Gore to Bush.''

"The real swing is among independents,'' he said, "and they have swung to us."

He said that the votes of these people would be decisive.

[fujiyama]

9. I think someone

once posted something about a poll taken several years after Kennedy was shot, how they had voted in the '60 election.

Kennedy won by a landslide, while in real life the election had been very close.

Wow, people can't even remember who they voted for 4 years ago?

[shelley806]

18. It's not that they can't remember!

It's that they want to be included as having voted for a "winner", even in a very close election. So they say they voted for whoever one--they act like Rove , Cheney, and Bush; i.e. they lie.

[txindy]

10. Yes, I agree with his assessment.

People 'forget' things very conveniently sometimes. Especially when they're trying to skew polls.

[Zero Gravitas]

15. in other words

maybe only 1% of Gore voters have gone insane & are voting Chimp and at least 11% (more like 17%) of Bush voters are voting Kerry.

My personal "anecdata" supports this conclusion.

[Zuni]

17. that is how I see it as well

I know several people who are Republican in philosophy or in registration who simply cannot vote Bush due to lack of confidence in his ability.
Some of them are simply not voting for either---gonna pull a lever for the libertarian or Nader.

[Sannum]

4. Never underestimate the stupidity of the american people.

That being said, I think we are going to do very well on Tuesday:)

[Gavinicus]

6. It's the Fear Factor

There are some people who flock to their nominal leader during a perceived crisis. Others simply flock to the incumbent. But seven percent is a depressing number. That means that 1 in 14 Americans cannot distinguish between a homicidal psychotic who wears an American flag on his lapel and a real leader (who also wears an American flag on his lapel).

Apologies to Joe Rogan.

[Elidor]

20. More like 2 in 5

[NNadir]

13. I have heard of lots of Repuke defections but not one -even one-

Democratic defection.

7% seems like a absurdly high number. If it is true, I suspect that all the defectors live in Utah.

[Joe Turner]

16. That could be but Kerry is picking up more republicans

I just took a look at free republic's internal poll asking members who they preferred for president and the Bush-Kerry vote is 79%-13% with the rest going to 3rd party candidates. I had to look twice at that poll. I've never seen Bush's poll numbers so low on that site. In past free republic polls Bush has come in above 90%.

Change is in the air in this election season and it transcends to republicans as well. Honest republicans that don't wear partisan blinders know that Bush does not have the character, judgment, temperament, maturity and intelligence to be the president of the United States. It's why Kerry is going to win on Nov. 2.

[fujiyama]

2. That says it

He lost more voters than KErry did Gore voters.

Plus new voters are favoring Kerry by a HUGE margin.

Then there's the Naderite block...We can say that about 2/3 or more of his support has switched to KErry.

Fuck ObL and let's kick Bush's ass. Kerry will then have bin Laden killed or captured like he should have years ago.

I'm sick of seeing his videos.

[eriffle]

5. I've seen that

I know a bunch (around 20) of people who voted for Bush in 2000 and are voting for Kerry or not voting this year. I can only think of three people who voted in 2000 for Gore who are voting for Bush this time. Out of the three, one is defintly voting for Bush ("born again" since 2000), one isn't voting, and one is undecided between Bush and 3rd party.

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. i know how much everyone hates positive news

so I'll just kick this before I go to bed and ask you all to stop feeding the trolls who keep kicking up the negative stories.

Night all!

[Lorien]

8. Sometimes it seems that way, doesn't it?

[Firespirit]

11. Oh my lord

Several DU'ers have posted the figure of 54 percent as their guess for Kerry's popular vote total. I must admit I was skeptical. But I believe now. Gore got, what, 48-49 percent? If these numbers are reliable, then add this 4 percent and get 52-53. Add the new voters and the 54 percent becomes a very reasonable number.

The article illustrates an important difference between the two sorts of switchers. The D-to-R's are voting on fear -- fear of terrorism, or of change -- fear of changing presidents during "wartime." (If the "war on terrorism" is an ongoing fight, as it must be, then the implications of this mentality are deeply disturbing.) The R-to-D's are voting for Kerry because they disapprove of what Bush has done. A fundamentally more intelligent and sane group of voters, and a group that we should be pleased to have with us.

:toast:

[Awsi Dooger]

23. We won't get 54%, but independents and new voters should win it

Kerry seems to be doing several points better among independents than Gore did. If he can just maintain Gore's position among women -- +8 to +10 -- the undecideds and new voters will put us over the top.

Gore won first time voters 52-43. That margin would be plenty for Kerry, since the gross numbers of first timers will be higher.

[Technowitch]

12. Exactly.

We have the following going for us:

- Bush voters who are sick of him
- Endless numbers of newly registered voters
- Voters who were apathetic before, but who aren't
- A lousy economy and massive deficits
- Still over a million jobs lost
- We're in an unpopular and unwinnable war
- OBL still on the loose
- An energized base, with a massive GOTV effort
- Instant challenges for the Repugs dirty tricks
- A candidate who has said he will NOT concede like Gore did, if the vote is even close
- A shitload of recent news that makes Shrub and his people look like blithering incompetents
- A military becoming increasingly disenchanted with their Repug C-in-C
- Hope

They have:
- The incumbency
- Blatant attempts at corrupting the voting process
- A few remaining media lapdogs, mainly Faux News
- Fear

The sleeper has awakened, people. Keep positive, get that vote out, and we shall prevail.

[abumbyanyothername]

19. It is becoming a mantra, but . . .

First of all, don't get me wrong, I have felt for a long time, and still feel, it's Kerry by BIG margins.

I just think that people need to be a little bit careful about all the new registrations. At least some of them are suspect.

The other side is going to be forcing us to fight to get every vote in and long lines are going to be out there.

Like I said, I think we will win big, but I think we need to dampen down the enthusiasm on the new registrations just a tad. There were many, but not as many as reported because some were just made up so that the workers could get paid. SOME not all, or even necessarily a significant number. But at least SOME.

[featherman]

14. This is just FYI regarding former Gore voters switching to Bush

Some people simply vote for the incumbent, whoever it is, just out of a misguided sense of false loyalty/patriotism ("support our leader"). Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 1996 also benefitted from this phenomena so it cuts both ways

My brother has been going door to door in Florida, canvassing a list of 2000 Gore voters and mentioned running into some of these folks. So there is a lot going on which don't have much to do with issues, events, or even judgments about the relative merits. Simply a blind "follow the leader" thing.

Hey...it's easy and doesn't require much thought.
Luckily I don't think this is too widespread but it does exist.

[Paragon]

21. Don't forget Nader voters in 2000 coming to their senses.

I should know -- I'm one of them.

[Spiffarino]

22. Same here

I voted for Nader in 2000, too. Figured NC was so red, it wouldn't make a difference. What a schmuck I was.

Oy oy oy...

[THUNDER HANDS]

24. early morning kick for those who didn't see this last night

mo'nin ya'all

:hi: