Election Model and Zogby: Polling coincidence, confirmation or conspiracy?

[TruthIsAll]

If you love numbers, chew on this:

Zogby now has Kerry ahead 47-46. It's too bad he rounds off. Otherwise, he would show my numbers exactly. Read on:

The Election Model actually consists of three models:
1. State-poll based (calculates the weighted national average)
2. Independent National poll simple average (9 polls)
3. Independent and Corporate National poll simple average (18 polls)

Both national models EXACTLY agree on Kerry's average: 46.89%.
The Nat9 and State models EXACTLY agree on Bush's average: 45.89%.

Now, here are Election Model results from yesterday:

Current Average
Model Nat9 Nat18 State
Kerry 46.89 46.89 47.14
Bush 45.89 46.89 45.89

Coincidence or confirmation - or conspiracy?

[displacedtexan]

1. I noticed that!

Your election model work has been one of the bright spots in my recent days!

My husband is a demographer in DC, and he says you are brilliant!

[demosincebirth]

2. You have me thinking now.

[TruthIsAll]

3. As they say in the travel ads: If you go.....

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Renew Deal]

4. Holy Shit. You are John Zogby

We're not worthy
We're not worthy
We're not worthy

;)

[Sinnerman]

5. 72 Hours Til Kerry Landslide

[rndmprsn]

6. right on!

just wanted to say thanks for your hard work...i point to your numbers whenever i get a democrat who is wavering under the faulty poll assualt...

[TruthIsAll]

7. It will all mean squat if BushCo is allowed to steal it.

If we don't let them, Kerry is a SURE winner.