State-by-State Predictions - ADD YOUR INPUT!

[RememberTheCoup]

I'm trying to rate each state using the electoral-vote.com
rating system (but not their data) where it goes from strong
Bush to strong Kerry:

1 strong Bush
2 weak Bush
3 barely Bush
4 tossup
5 barely Kerry
6 weak Kerry
7 strong Kerry

I started off with my own predictions but have been refining
them based on DUers' input. I'd like to continue to do so.
Please tell me which of the following states you think should
be moved into a higher or lower category. I'd like to keep the
predictions on the cautious side, but most of the input I've
received has been to move certain states to a stronger Kerry
category. I've had very few suggestions telling me to move a
state to a stronger Bush category.

As I get input from DUers, I will continue to modify the
ratings. Please tell me what you all think, especially if you
disagree with what someone else has suggested. My goal is to
get a rough consensus of DUers' thoughts. I have a spreadsheet
that I'm updating that I want to use on Election Night to
track our progress.


STRONG BUSH
Texas		TX	 34
Georgia		GA	 15
Indiana		IN	 11
Alabama		AL	  9
Kentucky	KT	  8
South Carolina	SC	  8
Idaho		ID	  4
Oklahoma	OK	  7
Kansas		KA	  6
Mississippi	MS	  6
Nebraska	NE	  5
Utah		UT	  5
West Virginia	WV	  5
Alaska		AK	  3
Montana		MT	  3
North Dakota	ND	  3
South Dakota	SD	  3
Wyoming		WY	  3
TOTAL 			138

WEAK BUSH
North Carolina	NC	 15
Virginia	VA	 13
Missouri	MO	 11
Tennessee	TN	 11
Arizona		AZ	 10
Louisiana	LA	  9
TOTAL 			 69

BARELY BUSH
Nevada		NV	  5
TOTAL 			  5

TOSSUP
Florida		FL	 27
Colorado	CO	  9
TOTAL 			 36

BARELY KERRY
Ohio		OH	 20
Wisconsin	WI	 10
Iowa		IA	  7
Arkansas	AR	  6
New Mexico	NM	  5
Hawaii		HI	  4
TOTAL 			 52

WEAK KERRY
Michigan	MI	 17
Minnesota	MN	 10
New Hampshire	NH	  4
TOTAL 			 31

STRONG KERRY
California	CA	 55
New York	NY	 31
Illinois	IL	 21
Pennsylvania	PA	 21
New Jersey	NJ	 15
Massachusetts	MA	 12
Washington	WA	 11
Maryland	MD	 10
Connecticut	CT	  7
Oregon		OR	  7
Maine		ME	  4
Rhode Island	RI	  4
Delaware	DE	  3
Dist of Columb	DC	  3
Vermont		VT	  3
TOTAL 			207

[steve2470]

1. FL will go for Kerry, thanks to SE Florida nt

[NMDemDist2]

2. better rethink AZ -- check out these numbers from the SoState and Zogby's

results

STATE TOTALS as of 10/25/2004
Ind 655,554

Dems 914,264

Libertarian 18,261

Repubs 1,055,252

total 2,643,331

http://www.azsos.gov/election/Active_Voter_Count.pdf

According to Zogby's poll on Oct. 21:

Mr. Bush holds a small lead among men, while Mr. Kerry holds an unusually small edge among women. A bright spot for Mr. Kerry here – he leads among independents by a 62% to 31% margin.

so let's do the math shall we?

Bush gets Repubs + Libertarians + 1/3 of Indies = 1,292,031 48.87%

Kerry gets Dems + 2/3 of Indies = 1,351,300 51.12%

we win by a comfortable 2.25% margin

[eaprez]

3. I think everything is a wash now after yesterdays news.

I'm not saying its over - I'm saying we don't know and can't predict the impact. It could go either way.

[Lefty48197]

4. Yesterday's news is that Bush is one day closer to defeat

Today, he's even closer.

[RememberTheCoup]

5. Well, I'd like to assume that the video has minimal impact.

I can't imagine that it will hurt Kerry, no matter how some people try to spin it. But for the sake of caution, I'd like to assume that it won't have that much impact in either direction. I tried to base my original predictions mainly on historical performance (i.e. Is a state traditionally "blue" or "red"?) and somewhat on polls, although I don't completely trust them, and somewhat on anecdotal evidence, for what it's worth.

[republicansareevil]

6. I would change WV and IA for sure.

I would call WV weak Bush instead of strong Bush. I would call IA tossup or even barely Bush instead of barely Kerry.

I also might make HI a little stronger and PA a little weaker so that they are both weak Kerry but I'm not as confident about those changes.

[Cats Against Frist]

15. Kerry is going to win Iowa

I have no doubt.

[republicansareevil]

7. noticed one more thing...

There's only one state in the barely Bush category -- might consider pulling some from the weak Bush or tossup categories, if appropriate.

[graywarrior]

8. Kerry will win Florida

[RememberTheCoup]

9. That's the one change I'd been resisting.

I've had at least two other suggestions to upgrade Florida on past threads but I'm so worried about vote theft I've been afraid to get cocky about that one, but since I want this to represent a DU consensus, I will upgrade it on my next change. Would you call it barely Kerry or even weak Kerry? Compare it to the other states under those headings.

[graywarrior]

10. Probably more than barely Kerry

If poll watchers do their jobs, the black vote will take him way over the top.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

11. Move Colorado to barely/Weak Kerry

If we are able o GOTV we WILL win.....GOTV is the key....also expect thatAmendment 36 will die and Kerry will get all the EV votes

[RememberTheCoup]

12. ok

thanks!

[RememberTheCoup]

13. When this sinks to the third page...

...I will post an updated list with everyone's suggestions incorporated.

[Jackinbox]

14. I think CO is barely Bush

I heard Tad Devine this morning talking about winning NM and NV and that CO is "a real battleground". That leads me to believe we're running a little behind there. I hope I'm wrong though.