Predictions for Tuesday thread

[x-g.o.p.er]

I don't mean this to start a flame war, I just have no idea how it's going to turn out. I actually started this for some positive reinforcement and encouragement, because I am getting discouraged. Pick me up, guys, ok?

I think it will not break either way, unless there is something along the lines of a Bush DUI story like there was the weekend before the 2000 election.

The popular vote is Bush's in the bag--not because more people will vote for him, but because of the electronic voting machines. I think that wherever they are used, there will be substantial irregularities, and the "votes" will break for Bush by a large number overall.

Electorally, it will end up a 269-269 tie initially, but there will be so many irregularities that there will be more lawsuits than votes cast when it's all said and done.

I have no idea who will be my next commander in chief.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. If You Think The Election Will Be Stolen Why Fucken Vote?

[Sinnerman]

2. I'm Optimistic & Kerry will win

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Me Too..

There's going to be exit polls...

Don't you think the shit will hit the fan if exit polls are greatly different from actual polls...

[Zynx]

4. Kerry will win by three points and carry the following states:

All the Gore states(perhaps minus NM) plus:

Ohio
Flordia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Missouri(yes, it is still a swing state and a lot closer than we have let on)
Colorado
and perhaps Virginia

[rhino47]

11. Kerry by 3 pts in Pa too. nt

[requiem99]

5. No wonder you are freaked out, you can't think rationally. n/t

[mikehiggins]

6. Not at all

I doubt there will be any question as to electoral OR popular vote.

John Zogby said Kerry was going to win when he appeared on the Daily Show, and he said it without a moment's hesitation. Since his polls have never shown Kerry ahead (or at least usually not; there may have been a few times but mostly it's been Bush all the way) I'm inclined to beleive him.

More to the point, on the ground, the increase in enrollment and the increase in enthusiasm across the board has to count for something.

I'd say Kerry gets 300+ evotes and the game is done.

What the GOPukes will do then? I really don't have a clue.

[Misunderestimator]

7. Well, at least I appreciate that you weren't excessively negative in your

title... but your entire post sure is. Come on! There's something to be said for keeping a positive attitude... Go out and GOTV, make sure that Kerry has such a lead at the polls that all the machinations of the RNC re. voter fraud and disenfranchisement will be just a lot of nothing. Buck up, man. Kerry is going to be your next commander-in-chief.

[tedoll78]

8. My honest assessment at this point:

Theory A:

Kerry will win all of the Gore states, with a few exceptions:

New Mexico. Zogby is the only pollster showing Kerry up. Other polls have shown Bush up BIG. I might be VERY wrong on this one though.

Iowa. Early voting aside, I wonder sometimes..

That would leave Kerry with 248 electoral votes.

He then picks-up:

Ohio. It's a gimme at this point. Bush is tanking there.

New Hampshire. Another gimme.

This gets Kerry up to 272EVs. Game, set, and match.

..........

Of course, I could be totally wrong. My Theory B is that a Democratic Tidal Wave will sweep the nation, rendering the GOP in control only narrowly in the House. In this scenario, Kerry wins:
- all Gore states
- New Hampshire
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- West Virginia
- Florida
- Tennessee
- Missouri
- Arkansas
- Ohio
- Louisiana
- Colorado
- Arizona
- Nevada

The Democrats sweep into control of the Senate, flipping:
- Colorado
- Alaska
- Kentucky
- Oklahoma
- Illinois

If turnout is super-high, look out GOP!

[gristy]

9. Kerry landslide

trust me

[leyton]

10. I think it will probably hinge on Florida.

All polling data from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html.

My predictions:

Kerry has effectively picked off Ohio and New Hampshire. Bush has picked off New Mexico; though he hasn't consistently hit the 50% mark, he does tend to lead Kerry by several points.

Both candidates have a chance to take Florida. Kerry could win it, since Bush has hit a ceiling of 48% and turnout should be high; Bush could win it, since he does still lead Kerry (in general) and his family runs the election machinery.

If Kerry wins Florida, game over, we win. If Bush wins Florida, we cannot lose any Gore states other than New Mexico and Iowa.

Hawaii is being hyped right now, but will almost certainly go for Kerry: though Bush is tied or leading by a statistically insignificant amount, he is nowhere near the 50% he needs to win the state. Colorado is hyped as well, but the referendum will not pass (last poll I saw had it losing by 20 points, correct me if I'm wrong) and the state will stay red.

Senate:

I don't think we have much of a chance here.

Democrats will pick up Colorado with Salazar and Alaska with Knowles. And, of course, Barack Obama will be elected to Carol's old seat in Illinois to become the third black Senator since reconstruction.

The Republicans will pick up Georgia (though it could benefit the Democrats, since we don't have to waste any committee assignments to Zell) and Louisiana (unless Vitter doesn't win outright and it gets pushed to another election). And though Inez Tenenbaum has made headway in South Carolina recently, DeMint will pick up the state. Tom Daschle is finished in South Dakota.

Republican Bunning will win despite recent screw-ups and the GOP will also retain Oklahoma.

North Carolina and Florida are too close to call. Depending on how the Republicans do here, they will net between one and three Senate seats for the election. The Senate will most certainly by Republican for the next two years.