Early Voting and Exit Polls

[Zynx]

I have an interesting question. How are the networks who are going to be doing the exit polling accounting for the early voting in terms of doing the exit polls? Won't the results be totally screwed up on election day if they haven't been doing enough exit polling of early voters?

[DAGDA56]

1. As I remember, the organization that did exit polling, and...

...provided results to all networks, appeared to be so totally wrong in 2000, that they just gave up...went out of business. I'm no poll expert, but it seems to me asking someone who you just voted for is far more accurate than asking who you might vote for days or weeks from now. I have in my mind that Florida really screwed up the exit pollsters...perhaps someone has a better memory than I.

[Nightjock]

3. I could be wrong

but the exit pollsters got it RIGHT in Florida because everyone except Fox got it right by calling Florida for Gore.
Only Fox knew the FIX was in.

[Paradise]

8. No, you are not wrong; they got it RIGHT, and so did you! n/t

[mom cat]

6. Excuse me! They were totally right. They called Florida for Gore based

on the exit polls and they were right. The theory that they were wrong is dead wrong. Gore won Florida. The Exit pollers were correct. Bush was handed Florida after daddy's court stopped the recount that would have proven that Gore won and the exit polls were right. It is a shame that these have now been lost as a check on the elections.

[DAGDA56]

7. Yes, that's what I'm trying to say...the exit polling...

company was in shock...they KNEW they had it right...that nobody would lie on an exit poll at the rate that would be needed to create the Bush win. An article futher down the thread shows the company did eventually dissolve...some of the first lay-offs directly attributable to the * administration.

[mom cat]

9. Sorry I responded so fast. I think I replied to the wrong post.

[Renew Deal]

2. That's what I have been saying.

Will they have the pukes way ahead in Florida because so many dems voted early? I guess they will have to watch the numbers come in.

[DAGDA56]

5. Good point...if the much more reliable exit polls don't begin until 11/2..

...then they lose their reliability...are no better than a CNN online poll.

[NMDemDist2]

4. here's a CNN article on how they play to run it this year

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/25/election.night.tm/


Well, maybe. As soon as the polls close, the networks will still try to call as many contests as possible, but they will be relying on a new system. The old organization that conducted exit polls and counted votes for the networks, Voter News Service (VNS), has been dissolved and replaced by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of six news outlets: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press. Veteran pollster Warren Mitofsky led a group that overhauled VNS's computer models, factoring in, for instance, voting patterns from three previous elections instead of one. Mitofsky and Edison Media Research will conduct exit polls, and the A.P. will tally votes. The networks are also using more sophisticated statistical models to interpret the data, each with its own special sauce to try to project winners as fast and accurately as possible.

Overall, the system held up during the Democratic primary and has been tweaked and stress tested since then.

One area where NEP should be more accurate is in measuring the impact of absentee ballots. In 2000, roughly 16% of the electorate voted absentee or early, and that figure could hit 22% this year, according to Mitofsky, since many states have loosened restrictions on voting by mail. Because absentee and early voters aren't represented in exit polls, NEP is surveying those voters by phone in 13 states, up from three states in 2000.