Newsweek - Bush up by 6

[highplainsdem]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/

Editing to add this note after seeing replies criticizing me for posting this message:

This is not MY poll. I posted this message and link in response to a few separate threads asking about the Newsweek poll. I did not have time when I posted it to add my own editorial comments, and I didn't have time to post it in all those different threads. So if you want to bash someone, bash Newsweek. We've had all kinds of different polls posted here that showed Bush ahead of Kerry, and I don't recall seeing the people who posted those polls being bashed like this. Why in the world is this single poll so important to you? I don't believe the poll results, either, but if I see people asking about it and I Google Newsweek fast and find the poll, I'll post the link for that page.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Boooo.

[still_one]

2. What is the point? Zogby poll today had Kerry up by 1

Frankly, at this stage of the game I see no point in showing polls that are only demoralizing

[highplainsdem]

5. People were asking about the Newsweek poll.

I'm not trying to demoralize anyone. We see all sorts of polls posted here.

[freetobegay]

10. "demoralizing"

For some thats the whole point.

[Sparkly]

3. Reuters - Kerry up by 1

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&ncid=696&e=8&u=/nm/20041030/pl_nm/campaign_poll_saturday_dc

[Renew Deal]

4. That's too funny.

56% dissatisfied and Bush is winning. Sure. Another scam.

[ogradda]

6. what a charming thing to see on saturday morning

:-( :puke: :argh: :freak: :hurts:

[NMDemDist2]

7. huge MoE i need to see the breakdown of who was polled

this poll is strange.

And there is a whole deck of other wild cards. Most observers expect a larger-than-usual turnout, given the passions swirling around this election. If first-time voters turn out in huge numbers, or if young voters actually come out and vote this time, then all the polls (which assume both of those groups will only turn out in their usual low numbers) will be wrong. First-time voters support Kerry 47 to 44 percent over Bush and voters under 30 support Kerry 52 to 38 percent for Bush. (Note that the margin of error for first time voters is plus or minus 11 and for under-30’s is plus or minus 10.)

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. this poll makes NO FN SENSE AT ALL

Independents swung from 52-38 Kerry to 47-38 Bush in one poll?

Give me a freakin' break.

This poll is THE most bogus of all the polls I've seen this campaign season.

[batchdem04]

15. hehe..a 23 point swing!

[Nay]

20. Exactly. A MOE of 10?? Jesus. That poll is worthless.

[Rose Siding]

9. Nice title. Even msnbc is calling it a statistical tie

[lolamio]

11. This poll archive from 2000 makes me feel better.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/29/tracking.poll/

Bush was up by 7 points, and we all know how the voting turned out in that election.

[batchdem04]

12. haha...after 2000...

why do we still believe numbers? LOOK at the early voting lines. young people are voting, first timers are voting, cell only users as well. (i fall in all 3 groups)

this poll is prob flawed with its internals...but i don't care. we are going to win.

[flpoljunkie]

13. What will happen on election day? Who knows! Measures popular vote only!

"So, what will happen on Election Day? Who knows? If the Democrats and their 527 allies succeed what they promise will be historic get-out-the-vote efforts, Kerry still has a chance. And it’s the tally in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire that matters more than the national horserace, which only measures the popular vote."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/

[Zen Democrat]

14. * is up 4 in registered voters - 4 point m.o.e. means dead heat.

Nothing has changed.

[TruthIsAll]

23. No. A dead heat is an absolute tie. If Bush is leading by 3, he is leading

46-46 is a tie.

49-46 is a lead.

[rndmprsn]

16. BULLSHIT

[The Zanti Regent]

17. Just another lie from NEWSPEAK magazine

The home of WHOREWARD Fineman and Lying Mikey (I got $600,000 in my pocket from Scaife for setting up Bill Clinton) Issikoff.

Every word in that dog turd is a lie, even the "and's" and "but's"

[sonicx]

18. union households

<<in the new poll, labor-union households—part of the Democratic base—are leaning toward Bush 54 percent to 42 percent. Last week, they were leaning toward Kerry 61 to 35>>

this poll is laughable.

[bushwakker]

19. i guess i'll just stay home then "highplainsdem"

[Snivi Yllom]

21. rcp average

this all depends on turnout. Massive turnout will nullify this graph.

[Oddman]

22. Lots of work ahead

But I think Kerry will pull it out - even with the bin Laden tape.

Let's be realistic - we are talking about a lot of uninformed people in a country that still believes Saddam had something to do with 9/11.

Kerry has got to stick to the facts and not shout "Wake up" - He must win - Stem Cell - Deficits - War - Religion - A Nation Divided - Environment - Patriot Act - Tax Cuts - Then Worst President in the History of our Country!

[CityDem]

24. Don't jump on this poster

I come to this site for information. I am interested in this information regardless of who is ahead in the horse race. Question the internals or methodology, but don't take out your frustrations on the poster. It's not like he is posting something from newsmax.

[highplainsdem]

25. Thank you. And please check out my reply in this DU thread

suggesting that people posting about the Newsweek poll must be trolls or freepers, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1227884 .

As I pointed out there, I posted a message here last week about an AP story that might corroborate the National Prayer Breakfast photo showing what is apparently an earpiece in Bush's ear. (The AP story was about a bizarre disruption of the sound system at the prayer breakfast while Bush was speaking. See http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/05/bush.loudnoise.ap/index.html and the photo at us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20040205/capt.sge.hrr76.050204183407.photo00.default-305x333.jpg .) I'd found that AP story searching the DU archives (there'd been a few separate threads about it, but no one linked it to the photo showing an earpiece, which was posted later that day, 2/5/04), and I wrote to two experts about it before posting about it here.

There were NO responses at all to that message, unless you count the reply I posted to kick it back to page 1.

I've posted a lot of other messages here, trying to provide information that might be useful. I was amazed to get such a negative reaction when I posted about the Newsweek poll, after there were a few separate threads asking about it.