Newsweek Poll - Kerry 45% Bush 48% RV - Bush Approval 46%

[unfrigginreal]

It’s still a statistical dead heat, but a new Newsweek poll gives Bush a boost

snip

The poll finds the race closer among registered voters. Forty-eight percent of registered voters would vote for Bush and 44 percent would vote for Kerry. One percent would vote for Nader. In a two-way race, 48 percent would vote for Bush/Cheney and 45 percent would vote for Kerry/Edwards. The worse news for Kerry: in the last lap of the race, the number of “persuadables” is falling. Now 9 percent of registered voters say they haven’t made up
their minds who to vote for, down from 13 percent last week, and just six percent of likely voters say they haven’t decided.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent (meaning any support number could be up to 4 points higher or down to 4 points lower) anything less than a 9-point lead is a statistical dead heat. So to the statisticians and professional pollsters, Bush’s 6-point lead is a tie. But for the rest of us, any movement at all in this fiercely and closely fought race looks huge.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Nice attitude, for your 2nd post! Do you belong here?

[ronnykmarshall]

8. No shit.

This place is crawling with freepers.

[cubsfan forever]

15. Wow do you smell the

desperation of some people? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm?
50 Kerry-44 Asshat. No, let's NOT sugarcoat it.


Professor 2

[melody]

4. Probably Karl Rove at work

I'll be more worried when Zogby posts his next numbers.

I doubt we're going to see any serious shift to the Butcher.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Two Posts....

I'll bet you don't make it to three...


Go back to free republic....


You will raise the intelligence of both sites

[Sparkly]

6. "Likely voters" means "Guesswork"

And only 20% are even answering these polls now.

Newly-registered voters have been shown to be 8 points up for Kerry.

Chimp's approval ratings are still below 50%.

Turn-out is already trending toward HUGE.

But let's not sugarcoat it.

[unfrigginreal]

10. Newsweek LV has been swinging 6-10 pts week to week

in this poll they're trying to claim a 23 point swing in Independents in this poll. That's just pure bullshit. Welcome to DU, not.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. But likely voters isn't a very valid measure.

Likely voters are usually considered to be those who voted in the last election. That means the huge number of new voters wouldn't be considered. I don't pay any attention to LV numbers any more.

[Clark4Prez]

12. Likely voters is bullshit, sugarcoat that!

The real number that matters is 46% approval, that is Bush's ceiling, he will get no more than his approval rating.

Oh, ZOT'cha.

[requiem99]

17. LV terminology is fatally flawed this year. You know it, I know it.

So lets stop deluding ourselves into thinking this will actually be a close race. When Kerry wins by 100+ EVs I will be there to revel in all the neocon crying as their chance at fascist world domination ends with Bush being sent back to Crawford, a beaten packmule.

Let me taste those sweet, sweet tears.

[Arkana]

20. Dear Mr. Rove,

Don't you have anything better to do than hang out here?

[Snivi Yllom]

27. thanks for nothing

take that BS poll and ....


well, you know

[GaryL]

28. Back to your kind!

Vile one. Or how about signing up and fighting for the pretender? I fought and Vietnam and my nephew is somewhere is Iraq. Probably not, eh? I've never met a freeper yet who isn't a coward to the bone.

[jab105]

2. I read through the article, but what was the D-R breakdown...

I didn't see it anywhere...

Did they oversmaple republicans?

[jefferson_dem]

9. That's the question i want to see answered as well. The polls internals

do not match up at all to the horse-race numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. either zogby or the other pollsters will be discredited...

predictions are binary things...

[jezebel]

7. What was Newsweek's last poll in 2000? NT

nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I think they had gore winning .... one of the few.... but don't quote me..

[Rose Siding]

24. No. Bush was up by 8pts in late Oct 2000

http://usembassy.state.gov/islamabad/wwwh00103101.html

At least seven polls give Bush a margin of between one and eight points. The figures include Newsweek at 49-41 percent, CNN/USA Today/Gallup at 49-42 percent, Time at 49-42 percent, MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby at 45-52 percent, Portrait of America at 46-42 percent, Election.com/Battleground 2000 at 43-40 percent and ABC News/Washington Post at 47-46 percent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. it's academic but those polls were a week out not three days out...

nt

[melody]

26. no, they didn't

2000-

Bush - 45%
Gore - 43%
Nader - 5%

Gore went up nearly three points, and Nader isn't going to pull above 1% this year.

This new one is statistically meaningless

[cindyw]

33. *45% Gore 53% Nader 5%

Obviously Nader got nowhere near that support.

[progdonkey]

13. so, 2% disapprove of Bush's job, but are still voting for him?

[baldguy]

19. Pragmatic Right-wing lunatics

duhbya is way too liberal for their taste - but he's the best they got.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. You Nailed It...

There are some folks who think Bush isn't conservative enough...

and


it's possible to overperform your approval numbers.... Gray Davis did it in Cali until and then the people realized they reelected a lemon*





*The California people thought that.... I don't live in Cali so I can't make that determination...

[endnote]

14. LOL, they had to give him a 50%, no? Otherwise we know he's toast.

[in_cog_ni_to]

18. MSNBC just showed a 50% Bush 44% Kerry Nader 1%

Pathetic.

[Stephanie]

21. Job Approval 46%!!! He is fuckng TOAST.

He is sunk. He cannot overcome that. Watch that number - that's the only one that counts. Wooo hoooooo! 46, 46, 46!

[alcuno]

23. Flashback to the Newsweek poll of 11/2/00

Bush - 45%
Gore - 43% (He got something like 50.3% in the end)
Nader - 5% (Did Nader get 5% - 6.5 million votes nationally in 2000?)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. final 00 results

gore 48.2


ass 47.7


nader 2.7

[Chimpanzee]

32. Can we DU their online poll?

In the middle of the article there is a link to their online poll - it dosen't jive with the numbers in the article of course - but it's fun anyway - I think Kerry is ahead 61-38%.

[cindyw]

31. This internal in the polling tells me that the poll is mistaken.

"Bush has retaken the lead among independents, 47 to 38. "

I have seen evidence of this no where else. Nowhere in opinion and nowhere in polling. This tells me that they just happened to hit on a pocket of republican leaning independents. So with the margin of error assume the race is more like * 46% Kerry 48%.

Then add in that they admit in the article that their poll assumes low turn out among new voters and younger voters:

"Most observers expect a larger-than-usual turnout, given the passions swirling around this election. If first-time voters turn out in huge numbers, or if young voters actually come out and vote this time, then all the polls (which assume both of those groups will only turn out in their usual low numbers) will be wrong."

then you have yourself a Kerry lead evident in this poll.

Note Newsweek's polling in 2000 had Bush up 2% points on November 2. That is a 3 point error in favor of Bush.

My prediction for the results based on this poll is that Kerry will win 50% to 48%