Gut Check Time--What Battleground States are We Going to Win??

[DemocracyInaction]

From a very careful analysis of the polls I can assure you that we are winning in all the battleground states and that we are losing in all the battleground states. I've never seen such idiotic discrepancies between polls in all my life!!! Truly the only states these people can put forth with certainity is the solid red or solid blue states where it will be a rout!! Soooooo, you have watched and listened and read and analyzed polls. You also watch the flight path of these candidates in these closing hours. No frills--no nuttiness---just what states do you feel in your gut we definitely are going to take; which do you feel are likely to go our way; which do you feel are likely to go Bush's way; which do you feel are going to be outright won by Bush. Of course, then there is Florida which is like predicting an election in a banana republic (we are never going to know who wins Florida until Jeb ceases to be the govenor). Anyway----the mike is yours. Let's hear from you.

[kikiek]

1. Put MN in the Kerry column.

[montana500]

18. FL, Ohio, PA, Mich, Wisconsin nm

nm

[RoadRunner]

2. New Mexico!

bank on it.

[Sparkly]

3. I think PA. MI, OH

And hopefully Florida.

[Zynx]

4. WI is going for Kerry. Mark it down.

We are also going to win Ohio, Iowa, MN, NH, and I think we can pick off a state like Virginia for good measure. PA I am not even worried about.

[ClassWarrior]

5. Yup. Wisconsin. Going to make sure it happens now...

24.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. I feel that the farmers will come out for Kerry.

They have gotten shafted by DAS GOP over and over again. I can't see them not voting for Kerry.

[Florida_Geek]

7. I will say FLORIDA

I do know we will get more people voting to Kerry than Bush, but I have a little problem with touchscreens and other stop the vote issues.

[tedoll78]

8. My gut says:

New Hampshire
Maine
New Jersey
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Oregon
Washington
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Hawai'i (lol!)

We'll definitely take these.

[Droopy]

9. I think Ohio and Florida are the two most important ones

Despite Jeb being governer of Florida I think we are going to win down there. My crystal ball isn't showing me anything but a blurred picture for Ohio. I hope we take it, but I think it's going to be very close here.

[pk_du]

10. Can you say.....FLOH...REE...DAHHH

....the biggest voter intimidation effort in modern history and Jeb/Hood fraud will STILL not deliver the brother-in-chief state to the Chimpster.

[Upfront]

11. Michigan Is Safe Kerry

Never in doubt.

[Cats Against Frist]

12. We will win Iowa

And OH, FL, WI, MN, NM, MI, WA, OR, PA, MN and NH.

I, personally think we will win all the big ones -- even Florida. There's only so much they can do to cheat, and in most of these states we have major, major operations.

I am confident. This is what my gut says.

[cosmicone]

13. After the latest news,

Kerry will run the table. I predict he will win all battleground states.

[Clinton Crusader]

14. for SURE? OH and PA

Not sure about NM, HOPEFULLY Arkansas.

[Marxdem]

15. All of them except

Florida, Ohio, Wisconisin, Iowa, NM.

[soggy]

16. what the hell happened to new mexico???

We'll take:
maine
new hampshire
minnesota
michigan
pennsylvania

leaning kerry:
ohio
florida
wisconsin

up in the air:
iowa
new mexico
colorado
hawaii??? (surely not)

until last week, i thought nm was in the bag, but the last few polls show dubya running away with it. what the hell did he do to the people down there?

last night's nightmare:
we pick up nh and ohio, lose nm and iowa and seem to be a lock for 272 ev's, only to lose hawaii and the election... send edwards out there!

[blackcat77]

17. I think we'll win MI and PA comfortably...

OH will be a little closer but I still think we'll win there. If the election is honest in FL, we'll win there as well for a sweep of the Grand Slam states. Bur really, I'm not all that confident about FL because I believe there *will* be some serious vote suppression and those 60,000 ballots never did show up. I'm sure they're locked away for use to swing the election Bush's way if it's possible. Let's say I think that state has about a 60% chance of going for Kerry.

The upper midwest is closer. MN should be good for Kerry. WI has been moving slowly but steadily toward Kerry for the last 5 days. I think that big rally impressed a lot of people. IO doesn't look quite so good. Call it 50-50.

CO is still very close in the polls. Kerry is riding Salazar's coattails, so if he wins there, it will be because of a very popular hispanic candidate for the senate. 50% chance

AR is probably an illusion, though if Big Dawg makes a strong appearance, it could help. Call it 33% chance.

NV and NM are probably going for Bush. They've been moving that way for at least two weeks and it may be too late to reverse. 25% chance in each state.

I think NJ has always been in Kerry's column but that there is a good deal of voter dissatisfaction with the governor there that's coming out in the presidential polls. Kerry's win chance there is 99%.

NH and ME were listed as close a while back but both have moved to Kerry. 99% ME, 95% NH.

Overall, I'd say things look pretty darned good...

[harpo]

19. Texas will be closer than last time :)

[featherman]

20. Depends on your definition of battlegrounds but

MAIN COURSE: For Kerry - the "usual" plus
NH, PA, OH, FL, MN, WI, IA, NM

GRAVY:
Possibles resulting from measurably higher DEM turnout margin:
WV, MO, AR, NV, AZ, CO

DESSERT: Longshots
VA, NC, KY, LA, MT