Colorado out of Reach now?

[Thrill]

Millions of advertising dollars, more than a dozen campaign stops and months of swing state attention have left Colorado where it started in this presidential race - with President Bush up comfortably over John Kerry - a Rocky Mountain News/News4 poll found.

Bush leads Kerry 51 percent to 42 percent, apparently breaking open a race that a News poll showed statistically tied in September and close two weeks ago.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3292188,00.html

[Melodybe]

1. Who did the Rocky Mountain News endorse

Colorado is a way hip state, they are not going for shrub.

[MrChupon]

3. The RMN endorsed Bush

Tis a right wing Rag.

[Deja Q]

2. Let them eat Kenny.

Or do I mean Cartman? :shrug:

It's a hideous state to live in anyway, especially if you're not hetero...

[still_one]

4. That poll has never shown us ahead

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) for the League of Conservation Voters. Oct. 20-21, 2004. N=400 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.9:


10/20-21/04
Kerry 48
bush 48
Nader 1
Undecided 4

believe what you want, and I will believe what I want

[iwantmycountryback]

5. Zogby

Shows it very very close.

[sleipnir]

6. The referendum is likely to pass, which means Kerry gets at least 4 EV

The winds of change are blowing in our elections, the EC is changing, shifting and Colorado will be the catalyst.

Even if Kerry loses, the redistribution referendum will pass and Kerry will garner at least 4 EV.

[tritsofme]

10. Have you seen polls confirming that?

I can only recall one that saw it failing.

There is no guarantee that it would stand up in court either.

[paulk]

24. I've not seen any local polling

that shows amendment 36 passing - in fact, the opposite.

[intheflow]

7. If my Denver neighborhood is any indication

it'll be Kerry in a landslide. I live in a college area, though, so my neighborhood is probably more educated than the rural parts of the state.

Still, even in the McMansion areas around Denver, K/E signs out-number B/C signs by at least 5-to-1. Bad news for B/C when even the rich folks don't support them.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

8. Simply a bad poll by Bush apologists....Kerry will win Colorado EOS

[Quixote1818]

9. Newspaper Polls Suck! They should stay in the News Business not the Poll

Business.

[drh]

11. Colorado out of reach?

First of all, it varies depending upon which poll you refer to. The Rocky Mountain News has a conservative bias. Second, I believe that, due to the historically low rate of voter cooperation with pollsters (recently estimated at about 16.6%), many if not all of their results are statistically inaccurate. In my professional opinion (Colorado psychologist), this will be a younger generation election. As this generation votes, so goes the election. Thanks to DU for providing this forum. I have been a very infrequent contributor due to precinct duties, etc. but am grateful for DU's existence!

[Bossy Monkey]

13. Welcome to DU, drhaupenthal! Be sure to post more after the election,

and thanks for the cogent analysis.

[Buddyblazon]

12. I live in Denver....

Both the RMN and the Denver Post are right wing rags. And thats not a guess...I can assure you that they are.

And they use Floyd Ciruli...a total right wing hack pollster. His polls are generally an eight point shift toward Bush.

How that mother fucker gets away with such bogus and skewed polls is beyond me.

But you better believe...on Nov. 3rd...I'm calling him as a "disgruntled * disciple" and I'm going to give his firm a piece of my mind.

I'll post his contact info on Wednesday WHEN we win...and I hope you call him...and contact our local media and let him know how totally inaccurate he was. If he's inaccurate enough and we pound the Colorado media with it...we can make him obsolete.

[Buddyblazon]

14. BTW...

Their sample size is only 500...thats pretty small.

[montana500]

16. heh

"And they use Floyd Ciruli...a total right wing hack pollst"


Yep. enough said.

[otohara]

15. RMN Polls Consistantly Over Sample GOP

I spoke to the guy who writes these articles and asked him why it's not mentioned they over sample GOP. He said, his editors wouldn't let him.

[Iceburg]

17. Well that would explain Cheney having to visit CO again on Monday

And I understand stem cell research is a BIG issue in Colorado ... I guess that's why the DNC is featuring Colorado's own Caroline Hale in a political ad this weekend.

...

This weekend, cable news junkies nationwide will get to see a Boulder girl who suffers from diabetes making the case for stem cell research on CNN.

Caroline Hale, 13, will talk in the ad of the difficulties of treating diabetes and try to convince voters that they should favor Democratic contender John Kerry's approach to stem cell research over the more limited policies supported by President Bush.

[ciaobox]

18. Bullshit! Colorado out of reach FOR BUSH

Don't believe the hype! Mosh now or die!

[exliontamer]

19. The Rocky is a right wing rag

While I don't think Kerry is ahead in CO, he's not trailing by 8, either.

Typical right wing Denver media whore rag trying to suppress turnout on the orders of their right wing publisher.

A pollster called me the other night and asked me some questions about a RMN story and if it would affect how I voted. I told him, "The Rocky is a piece of shit conservative birdcage liner... if they told me the sky was blue, I'd still look outside to make sure." He laughed his ass off and agreed.

[soggy]

20. colorada is most definately NOT out of reach!

a month ago, i would have said CO is bush's, but check it out...

kerry moron
46 47 29-Oct
49 45 28-Oct
42 51 27-Oct *RMNEWS poll
50 46 27-Oct
48 48 21-Oct
49 47 26-Oct
48 47 25-Oct
49 45 24-Oct

the ONLY poll that has any good news for * is the RMNews one. i don't live there and know nothing of their paper, but they're definately the outlyer, and if i were them i wouldn't be too loud about this poll or they could look pretty stupid in 3 days...

[DaveSZ]

21. "It's a hideous state to live in anyway"

Colorado is easily one of the most beautiful places in the world.

I guess you were talking about the people, but they seemed really nice when I visited.

They weren't as cool as New Mexicans though.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

22. it's agreat state...

to livein, but the conservatives are false christians and military type so they are both ingnorant and happy, a bad combination...

we do have pockets of free thinkers and radicals....i men Hunter S Thompson lives here!

[DaveSZ]

23. It's true there are lots of fundies

but there are more liberals there than where I live now (Texas).

Plus all the natural beauty is great, so overall I'd say CO is a pretty nice state to live in if you like nature and photography like me.

If you are gay, I don't really know where the best place in the US would be to live...perhaps NYC or San Fran I suppose.

[DuaneBidoux]

25. Funny thing is that there are a lot of great places to live if your gay

that are actually in "red" states: Atlanta, and Austin are two examples of cities that are hip to it.

[DaveSZ]

26. True

Austin's gay index is 160, and the average is 100:

http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/gayInfo.php?locIndex=26118

Denver is even higher than Austin, and more people live in Austin:

http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/gayInfo.php?locIndex=9430

[monchie]

27. Slightly OT: I hope the redistribution referendum doesn't pass...

...even if it could help Kerry.

There are big problems with distributing EV's, especially the method that's currently being used: the overall winner of the state getting the 2 EV's representing the senate seat, with the rest distributed to the winner of each congressional district. Now, in Maine and Nebraska, this hasn't created many problems, because they're small states with only a few congressional districts, two in ME and three in NE. Once you get to bigger states, like Colorado with seven, gerrymandering becomes a problem. Pennsylvania, with 19 congressional districts, is almost evenly split between Dems and Republicans, and the Dems have taken the last three presidential races, yet the state has been gerrymandered so that Republicans control a lopsided majority of the congressional seats.

Plus, there's the problem of some states having proportionally distributed EV's while others don't. Watch for a big push for large Dem-leaning states to distribute proportionally, while big Republican states, such as TX, retain the winner-take-all system.

In theory, proportional distribution sounds great, but as it's practiced now, it would be a disaster. The only way to make it work is a) all states should adopt the same system, whether proportional or winner-takes-all, and b) distribute the 2 EV's representing the senate seats to the winner of the state, then distribute the rest according to how each candidate did statewide.

[RememberTheCoup]

28. If anyone here has an opinion about Colorado...

...I'd appreciate it if you would post it to my state-by-state prediction thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1230345 :)

This thread is part of a series I've posted, but I've had a lot of conflicting opinions about CO.