Newsweek: Bush 50 Kerry 44 (LV), Bush 48 Kerry 45 (RV)

[liberalpragmatist]

I kind of doubt these findings, given Kerry's movement inother polls. And the Newsweek poll has generally been favorable to Bush. Could someone check on a question I have: I seem to remember that Newsweek gave the exact same numbers to the Bush-Gore race in the final weekend.

Anyway, we don't live in an echo chamber. So here are the Newsweek findings:

Oct. 30 - After months of the tightest presidential election contest in recent memory, a new NEWSWEEK poll suggests momentum may be moving toward President George W. Bush. As the bitter campaign enters its final days, against the eerie backdrop of a surprise appearance by Osama Bin Laden, Bush’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but larger than last week. If the election were held today, 50 percent of likely voters would cast ballots for Bush and 44 percent for the Democrat, Sen. John Kerry. (Ralph Nader would receive 1 percent.) That compares to a Bush lead last week among likely voters of 48 percent to Kerry's 46 percent.

In a two-way trial heat, excluding Nader, Bush/Cheney would defeat Kerry/Edwards 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Last week Bush led 48 to 47 in the two-way contest.

The poll finds the race closer among registered voters. Forty-eight percent of registered voters would vote for Bush and 44 percent would vote for Kerry. One percent would vote for Nader. In a two-way race, 48 percent would vote for Bush/Cheney and 45 percent would vote for Kerry/Edwards. The worse news for Kerry: in the last lap of the race, the number of “persuadables” is falling. Now, 9 percent of registered voters say they haven’t made up
their minds, down from 13 percent last week. And just 6 percent of likely voters say they haven’t decided.

[MidwestTransplant]

1. 36% Republican 33% Democrat sample

[Christiandem]

2. why bother reading Newsweek polls?

Why is it that they always oversample repukes??? And they make it seem like the poll is "fair and balanced". If it is 50-50, I don't think ** will be in the lead. We should all boycott those stupid polls...

[DemNoir]

3. Just 3 more days

And there will be no more of this crap for people to breathlessly post.

FREE AT LAST,FREE AT LAST!

[Pirate Smile]

4. Fox had Bush lose 3 points last night - now 47*- 45Kerry. Zogby has

Kerry up 1 point and Rassmussen has them tied.

A WP reporter just said on Fox that JK had a good night last night in their tracking poll.

Trends look good.

[Downtown Hound]

5. Whatever

[DefenseLawyer]

6. The ONLY number that matters

is that the incumbent is polling under 50% with 3 days to go. He's doomed. Historically, very thing breaks toward the challenger at this point. If George hasn'tclosed the deal by now he's not going to. Those votes are gone and they're not coming back. Doomed.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. For the first time in 8 years, I dropped a poll from my Excel model

Well earned, Newsweek. I dumped them starting with the previous poll.

Their bottom line number is irrelevant. I wouldn't reinstate Newsweek if Kerry were up six. The internals consistently scream this firm is remarkably incompetent.

The last poll had Bush leading among women and Kerry up with men. That's like reversing the AFC East standings between the Patriots and Dolphins. This poll is even more hysterical, Bush surging into a strong lead among union members and independents 20+% more Bush leaning than last time.