kranich
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:32 PM
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| Faux News Has Mathematician Predict Outcomes |
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On the Saturday show a mathematician predicts the possible outcomes using poll data from over 100 polls in battleground states. The gentleman, Dr. Wong, concluded that IF the voter turnout is high then Kerry would most likely win with 292 electoral votes. If voter turnout is low, Bush will most likely win with something like 280. He based this on a number of factors, the main one being the nature of undecided voters. He did mention that the nature of undecided voters was mostly unpredictable but generally that they favor a challenger. He also said that most polls were flawed in some sense and went on to describe some of the problems with them.
The conclusion is obvious. If you live in a BG state please do all you can or anything you can to get people to the polls.
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| TrueAmerican
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:34 PM
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I think that was Dr Wang, not Wong. I could be WONG thou.
;)
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| Longhorn
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:34 PM
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| kranich
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:40 PM
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| 6. You are probably right |
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Edited on Sat Oct-30-04 02:42 PM by kranich
I hate to sound like an "American Idiot", I work for a Japanese company and am always getting the names mixed up. With respect to Asians I need to try to get better at that. And thaks for the links. I did ot even know about the study.
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| Longhorn
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:34 PM
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| 2. I think you mean Dr. Wang who has a great website: |
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http://election.princeton.edu/He said he was going to be on Fox today but I just can't stand to watch it. Glad you caught him!
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| Sean Reynolds
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:34 PM
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| 3. It's Prof. Sam Wang...here's his website. |
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http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.htmlHe's projecting Kerry winning right now. That said, I'd put money on a high voter turnout than I would just the opposite.
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| UL_Approved
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:36 PM
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| 4. The point of mud slinging |
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This is the whole point about negative ads. If you get people pissed off about the election, they stay home. Every time that a large percentage of the population votes, it turns out to be for a Democrat. This is pretty good for FOX, but I expect that he dropped it on them before they could kick him out. Bet they have more heartburn now...
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| cosmicone
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:39 PM
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| 5. Can two Wongs make it right? n/t |
| qazplm
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:57 PM
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but two Wongs could make a Wang! ;)
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| WCGreen
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Sat Oct-30-04 02:45 PM
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| 7. The good prof admits to being a democrat on his website.. |
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I am into probabilities and have done some local polling over theyears here in the Cleveland area, and this guy is just a hoot....
He's in it for the pure love of numbers and that he wnat Kerry t win....
I think he was frustrated by the constanct dirdge of news as poll after poll was leaking and the numbers were staying put...
He averaged them, and the added a probability factor for the undecideds and has given a lot of people who might have otherwise been sitting in a warm tub with razor blade in hand something to hope for.....
He says it depends on TO and guess what Faux, the TO is going to be spectacular......
Score, Bush family 0-2 in reelection bid
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Thu Apr 25th 2024, 11:44 PM
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