State-by-State Predictions - KEEP ADDING YOUR INPUT!

[RememberTheCoup]

I'm trying to rate each state using the electoral-vote.com
rating system (but not their data) where it goes from strong
Bush to strong Kerry:

1 strong Bush
2 weak Bush
3 barely Bush
4 tossup
5 barely Kerry
6 weak Kerry
7 strong Kerry

I started off with my own predictions but have been refining
them based on DUers' input. I'd like to continue to do so.
Please tell me which of the following states you think should
be moved into a higher or lower category. I'd like to keep
the predictions on the cautious side, but most of the input
I've received has been to move certain states to a stronger
Kerry category. I've had very few suggestions telling me to
move a state to a stronger Bush category.

As I get input from DUers, I will continue to modify the
ratings. Please tell me what you all think, especially if you
disagree with what someone else has suggested. My goal is to
get a rough consensus of DUers' thoughts. I have a
spreadsheet that I'm updating that I want to use on Election
Night to track our progress.


STRONG BUSH
Texas		TX	 34
Georgia		GA	 15
Indiana		IN	 11
Alabama		AL	  9
Kentucky	KT	  8
South Carolina	SC	  8
Oklahoma	OK	  7
Kansas		KA	  6
Mississippi	MS	  6
Nebraska	NE	  5
Utah		UT	  5
Idaho		ID	  4
Alaska		AK	  3
Montana		MT	  3
North Dakota	ND	  3
South Dakota	SD	  3
Wyoming		WY	  3
---------------------------
total 			133


WEAK BUSH
North Carolina	NC	 15
Virginia	VA	 13
Missouri	MO	 11
Tennessee	TN	 11
Louisiana	LA	  9
West Virginia	WV	  5
---------------------------
total 			 64


BARELY BUSH
Nevada		NV	  5
---------------------------
total 			  5


TOSSUP
Arizona		AZ	 10
Iowa		IA	  7
---------------------------
total 			 17


BARELY KERRY
Ohio		OH	 20
Wisconsin	WI	 10
Colorado	CO	  9
Arkansas	AR	  6
New Mexico	NM	  5
---------------------------
total 			 50


WEAK KERRY
Florida		FL	 27
Pennsylvania	PA	 21
Michigan	MI	 17
Minnesota	MN	 10
Hawaii		HI	  4
New Hampshire	NH	  4
---------------------------
total 			 83


STRONG KERRY
California	CA	 55
New York	NY	 31
Illinois	IL	 21
New Jersey	NJ	 15
Massachusetts	MA	 12
Washington	WA	 11
Maryland	MD	 10
Connecticut	CT	  7
Oregon		OR	  7
Maine		ME	  4
Rhode Island	RI	  4
Delaware	DE	  3
Dist of Columb	DC	  3
Vermont		VT	  3
---------------------------
total 			186

[NMDemDist2]

1. thanks for moving AZ, i think we are the "stealth" swing state here

here's an interesting article

To Democratic activists, that misses the point. They argue that without the clutter of television advertising -- but with the presence of campaign organization every bit as big as the Bush campaign's -- voters here got to watch the first three debates without commercial interference, and that is why Bush's margin shrank so fast.

Going down the stretch, they have successfully pleaded with national Kerry-Edwards officials to stay off the air and let the news and their work on the ground be the campaign. Kerry's state director, Doug Wilson, speaks with poetic conviction when he says, "Without the spin, we can win."

In the absence of commercials (the Republicans pulled their ads as well), the news dominates -- a point driven home here the day after the debate.

From Baghdad came the news that one of the Americans missing and presumed dead in the suicide attacks on the fortified Green Zone was from the suburban community of Mesa.

All day, local television focused on the scene of people going in and out of the home where the wife of 36-year-old Ferdinand Ibara, an employee of a private security firm, was secluded.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/10/17/after_the_debates_arizona_is_in_play/

[elehhhhna]

2. Texas will surprise you. Maybe still bush but not so strong...

[harpo]

3. that's what I'm talkin about...just 700,000 people can change TEXAS

[RememberTheCoup]

4. okay, I'm changing TX, CO, and IA.

I'm changing TX (although I personally have my doubts). I'm
changing IA and CO based on input from posters on my previous
thread. CO and IA seem to be getting a lot of movement. I hope
I get more input on those so that I can find the categories
that make the most people happy.

It seems like the trend away from cautiousness is continuing.
The list won't be as meaningful if too many states are either
weak Kerry or strong Kerry. I wonder if I should add a
"moderate Kerry" category between weak Kerry and
strong Kerry even though that means "tossup" won't
be in the middle? Of course, I could add a moderate Bush as
well. Maybe that's where TX should go. Any other suggestions?

Here's the new list:

STRONG BUSH
Georgia		GA	 15
Indiana		IN	 11
Alabama		AL	  9
Kentucky	KT	  8
South Carolina	SC	  8
Oklahoma	OK	  7
Kansas		KA	  6
Mississippi	MS	  6
Nebraska	NE	  5
Utah		UT	  5
Idaho		ID	  4
Alaska		AK	  3
Montana		MT	  3
North Dakota	ND	  3
South Dakota	SD	  3
Wyoming		WY	  3
---------------------------
total 			 99


WEAK BUSH
Texas		TX	 34
North Carolina	NC	 15
Virginia	VA	 13
Missouri	MO	 11
Tennessee	TN	 11
Louisiana	LA	  9
West Virginia	WV	  5
---------------------------
total 			 98


BARELY BUSH
Nevada		NV	  5
---------------------------
total 			  5


TOSSUP
Arizona		AZ	 10
Colorado	CO	  9
---------------------------
total 			 19


BARELY KERRY
Ohio		OH	 20
Wisconsin	WI	 10
Iowa		IA	  7
Arkansas	AR	  6
New Mexico	NM	  5
---------------------------
total 			 48


WEAK KERRY
Florida		FL	 27
Pennsylvania	PA	 21
Michigan	MI	 17
Minnesota	MN	 10
Hawaii		HI	  4
New Hampshire	NH	  4
---------------------------
total 			 83


STRONG KERRY
California	CA	 55
New York	NY	 31
Illinois	IL	 21
New Jersey	NJ	 15
Massachusetts	MA	 12
Washington	WA	 11
Maryland	MD	 10
Connecticut	CT	  7
Oregon		OR	  7
Maine		ME	  4
Rhode Island	RI	  4
Delaware	DE	  3
Dist of Columb	DC	  3
Vermont		VT	  3
---------------------------
total 			186

[solarspa]

8. I would switch Nevada and AZ

Nevada is more likely to go Kerry than Arizona. I don't believe Arizona is a toss up. They are both probably weak Bush.

[RememberTheCoup]

10. thanks! (nt)

[0rganism]

5. I would switch Oregon to a 6, we have a lot of GOP east of the Cascades

Western Oregon is a bit like Northern California, but Eastern Oregon is more like Idaho. These last few years it's been very close.

Plus, we have one of those anti-gay-marriage ammendments on the ballot that's bringing out the fundies in droves. I'm pretty sure some people are voting split-ticket (i.e. pro-Kerry and anti-gay) but there's still going to be some carry-over impact. Kerry will probably win, but by 4 points or less rather than 10.

[RememberTheCoup]

6. Wow, thanks!

If I added a "moderate Kerry" category, would you put it there or in the "weak Kerry" category?

[RememberTheCoup]

7. I've heard some encouraging things about WV and VA.

Anyone think either of them should be moved?

[johnkerryyip145]

9. Kerry Wins! Kerry Wins!

He keeps all the Gore states, except perhaps IA and NM, but he picks up NH, OH, and FL. No contest. CO, NV, and AR will be up for grabs as well, but they're all Bush states, and it doesn't matter, anyway b/c of the more important pickups that Kerry gets.

[Firespirit]

11. MS is not "strong bush" anymore

I'm assuming that "Strong Bush" means a lead of 10 or more points. There is no way he has that here.

The Dem. Party people in my county told me yesterday that they are expecting -- not merely hoping for, but expecting -- 45 percent of the statewide vote to go to Kerry.

The Sept. ARG poll had him at 42 percent -- that, in the lowest point for Kerry's campaign.

I know of a few Repubs here who are actually switching to Kerry and several more who are just disgruntled and will either abstain or vote for Nader or Badnarik.

I picked up a copy of the student newspaper for my alma mater (MSU) and read the editorial page. Universal *-slamming, NO pro-Repub letters or columns, and there was even a piece opposing the state "marriage amendment" that is on the ballot. The county where MSU is located voted narrowly for bush in 2000, and a lot of the students who live off campus switched their residence when they went to college and are registered to vote there.

MS: Weak Bush.

Nov. 2 prediction for MS: * by 7 points.
2008 prediction: Swing state? (Hey, I can dream....)

[ReverendDeuce]

12. I would hardly call Nebraska "strong Bush"...

I see more Kerry stickers around district 2 than I do Bush.

Hell, even our D2 Democratic Congressional candidate Nancy Thompson has the GOP guy on the run by 2 percentage points.

You never know... we can split our electoral votes here. You never, never know what might happen in the Husker State.

[phish420]

13. wow, under that scenario, and I dont disagree much....

...you could be wrong on WI, CO, AR, NM and STILL have 19 EVs to spare!!
I think you are right on, though...I personally think IA will go to us and, unfortunately, AZ to *. But still PLENTY to win by a LANDSLIDE!!

[intheflow]

14. Colorado is a hard call.

My boyfriend is a recovering Republican who works for the military-industrial complex out here in Colorado. I am a peacenik. (Yes, we have some very scary conversations, just call us Dharma and Greg.) He lives in Colorado Springs and I live in Denver.

Living in Denver I get the feeling the state is easily a 6. K/E signs dominate the city, and even greatly outnumber B/C signs in the affluent suburbs to the south and west. I attend a progressive college where most folks hate Bush, so it certainly feels like Bush will be going down in Colorado.

Now, when I visit my fella in the Springs I see a lot more K/E signs and bumper stickers than B/C. But my boyfriend's take, working and living in conservative circles, is that Colorado will go for Bush even if people don't agree with anything he's doing. That stupid old "don't switch horses midstream" mentality. So I think he would vote Colorado a 3, or maybe even a 2.

Because we both move in opposite circles, I think we are both hearing how truly split Colorado is on the matter. But stubborn optimist that I am, I refuse to concede the EV to our current commander-in-thief. So I agree Colorado is a 5 - barely Kerry.

[Weembo]

15. Move NC to a barely Bush.

Strong showing from my contacts there

[RememberTheCoup]

16. MY NEW LIST

Here's the newest list with everyone's suggestions added. (Except Colorado is so controversial that I'm going to leave it as a tossup for the time being.) A big change is that I'm now using nine categories instead of seven. Also, I included a column on the right that indicates how the state did in 2000: 1=strong Bush, 9=strong Gore, 5=tossup. Please keep those comments coming in!

EDIT: Just moved NC.


state abbr EV 2000

STRONG BUSH (1)
Georgia GA 15 2
Indiana IN 11 1
Alabama AL 9 2
Kentucky KT 8 1
South Carolina SC 8 1
Oklahoma OK 7 1
Kansas KA 6 1
Mississippi MS 6 1
Utah UT 5 1
Idaho ID 4 1
Alaska AK 3 1
Montana MT 3 1
North Dakota ND 3 1
South Dakota SD 3 1
Wyoming WY 3 1
---------------------------
total 94


MODERATE BUSH (2)
Texas TX 34 1
Tennessee TN 11 4
Louisiana LA 9 3
Nebraska NE 5 1
---------------------------
total 59


WEAK BUSH (3)
Virginia VA 13 3
Missouri MO 11 4
West Virginia WV 5 3
---------------------------
total 29


BARELY BUSH (4)
North Carolina NC 15 2
Nevada NV 5 4
---------------------------
total 20


TOSSUP (5)
Arizona AZ 10 3
Colorado CO 9 3
---------------------------
total 19


BARELY KERRY (6)
Ohio OH 20 4
Wisconsin WI 10 5
Iowa IA 7 6
Arkansas AR 6 3
New Mexico NM 5 5
---------------------------
total 48


WEAK KERRY (7)
Florida FL 27 5
Pennsylvania PA 21 7
Michigan MI 17 7
Minnesota MN 10 6
Hawaii HI 4 9
New Hampshire NH 4 4
---------------------------
total 83


MODERATE KERRY (8)
New Jersey NJ 15 9
Oregon OR 7 5
---------------------------
total 22

STRONG KERRY (9)
California CA 55 8
New York NY 31 9
Illinois IL 21 8
Massachusetts MA 12 9
Washington WA 11 7
Maryland MD 10 9
Connecticut CT 7 9
Maine ME 4 7
Rhode Island RI 4 9
Delaware DE 3 8
Dist of Columb DC 3 9
Vermont VT 3 8
---------------------------
total 164