Why we REALLY should pay no attention to CNN Polls!!! GOOD NEWS

[shelley806]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/

Interesting Conclusions about CNN reporting on Election 2004 Online Polling Results:

I logged on to the CNN site to write an e-mail posted in DU, and decided to look up their polling data in the battleground states. I hadn't yet done this, and was in for a pleasant surprise, which only corroborated previous postings of CNN skewing polling results. The reason I wanted to check out their recent tabulations, is because of the fact that whoever takes 2 out of 3 EV from the following 2 groups of states, wins the presidency:

1.) OH, PA, FL and 2.) MN, WI, NM

My initial reaction was, well this isn't as bad as I thought. Kerry seemed to be winning in the recent polls, except for Florida, and that is not what is being reported on CNN, MSNBC, etc. And then I noticed a curious trend; that CNN/USA Today/Gallup either had Bush tied or winning for most of the polls, and the most "recent" CNN/USA today/ Gallup poll from New Mexico is dated October 3-6, and from Minnesota Sept. 11-14! I'm sure that they have done more recent polls in these contested states. And why do they only list 5 total polls for New Mexico, with the most recent being Oct. 6th?

What I decided to do, was to look at the 6 most recent polling data CNN listed for the 6 battleground states with the exception being NM, because CNN has only 5 polls listed for this state. Of these polls we get the following overall results:

Results for **6 most recent polls for Battleground States Reported by CNN:

State: Bush poll wins/ Kerry poll wins/ tie

Pennsylvania 1/4/1 Kerry win
Ohio 1/5/0 Kerry win
Florida 3/1/2 Bush win
Minnesota 2/3/1 Kerry win
New Mexico 2/3/0 Kerry win
Wisconsin 2/3/1 Kerry win

All of these states show a Kerry win for the most recent 6 polls reported by CNN, except for Florida, with 1 Bush/ 5 Kerry/ 0 ties. So, what are the results for CNN/USAtoday/Gallup results for these 6 recent polls in these 6 key states?

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll Results for most "recent" listed on CNN web page:

State: Date: Bush Kerry

Pennsylvania Oct. 23-26 47 50
Ohio Oct. 17-20 48 49
Florida Oct. 21-24 51 43
Minnesota Sept. 11-14 45 45
New Mexico Oct. 3-6 50 47
Wisconsin Oct. 16-19 50 40

For CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls we have a Bush win for these most recent polls: 3 Bush/ 2 Kerry/ 1 tie.

Results for all polls:
1 Bush/ 5 Kerry/ 0 ties

Results for CNN/USA Today/Gallup:
3 Bush/ 2 Kerry/ 1 tie


** All other polls (including CNN/USA Today/Gallup): ABC News Poll, Albequerque Journal Poll, American Research Group Poll, Badger Poll, Chicago Tribune Poll, Fox News Poll, Humphrey Survey, Insider Advantage Poll, Keystone Poll, LA Times Poll, Mason Dixon Poll, Minneapolis Star Tribune Poll, MSNBC/Knight Rider Poll, The Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati Poll, Quinnipiac Poll, WHYY/West Chester University Poll, and Wisconsin Public Radio Poll.