Democracy Corps Partial poll after OBL tape - w/leaners Kerry 48% Bush 47%

[unfrigginreal]

Q.9 (ASKED 3-WAY WHERE NADER ON BALLOT AND 2-WAY OTHERWISE) Thinking about the
elections on Tuesday, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican
George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry -- for whom would you vote -- George Bush or John Kerry?
Total
John Kerry................................................. 45
Lean John Kerry............................................. 3
George Bush................................................ 46
Lean George Bush............................................ 1
Ralph Nader ................................................ 0
Lean Ralph Nader ............................................-
(Other)..................................................... 1
Lean (Other) ................................................-
(Undecided)................................................. 1
(Refused) .................................................. 2
(Already Voted Refused) .................................... 1
Total John Kerry........................................... 48
Total George BUsh.......................................... 47
Total Ralph Nader........................................... 0
Total (Other)............................................... 1
Total (Undecided/Refused) .................................. 2
John Kerry - George Bush ................................... 1



Q.10 I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the release of Bin Laden's videotape. Please tell me
which one comes closer to your view.
It makes me think that George Bush took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan and diverted resources to
Iraq.
It underscores the importance of George Bush's approach to the war on terrorism.
Which statement comes closer to your own view?
Total
Bush took eye off ball strongly ................... 38
Bush took eye off ball not so Strongly.............. 8
Importance of Bush's approach not so strongly ...... 8
Importance of Bush's approach strongly ............ 29
(Both) ..............................................-
(Neither) .......................................... 4
(Don't know/Refused) .............................. 14
Total Took eye off ball ........................... 46
Total Importance of approach ...................... 36
Took eye off ball - Importance of approach ........ 10




Q.14 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican or what?
Total
Strong Democrat ............................................. 28
Weak Democrat................................................ 10
Independent-lean Democrat ................................... 11
Independent .................................................. 4
Independent-lean Republican................................... 9
Weak Republican ............................................. 10
Strong Republican............................................ 28
(Don't know/Refused) ......................................... 0

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_29-30_2004_Survey_partialfq.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. normal fluctuation- best was 49-47 a couple of days ago

nt

[napi21]

2. Don't you think it's a little too soon to be able to tell?

I've always heard Zogby say it takes 3-4 days to get a good poll result.

[unfrigginreal]

7. Yes, I do think it's too soon to tell how it will finally shake out

the key will be how the 14% that answered DK to question #10 finally decide on the question.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Four Days And The Election Will Be Going On..

I think Sunday is the last polling day....


Pollsters don't poll the day before the election because of fear of skewed results...

[pabloseb]

3. Equal number of dems and repugs in the sample

Hopefully more dems will turn out to vote.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. A lot more Bush voters from 2000

though I have heard people are more likely to say they voted for the winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Well 49-47...

that seems a bit conservative to me...


iinteresting that they push leaners to name which party they are leaning to...


10% African Americans...


They make up 12% of the population....

Guess they are expected to "undervote"...

Sad....

[pabloseb]

9. African americans do undervote

and by a huge margin. Even if they turn out in record numbers -as I expect- I don't think they'll vote in the same proportion as whites.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Hispanic Undrvote Too...

Voting is positively correlated to income and education...

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Only 35% of Hispanics were even registered to vote as of 2000

I'm not sure how much that has increased. Hispanics vote in absurdly low numbers, as verified by these percentages of eligible Hispanics who voted since 1976:

1976:  22.9%
1980   25.3%
1984:  32.7%
1988:  28.8%
1992:  28.9%
1996:  26.8%
2000:  27.5%

It's even lower among young Hispanics, maybe 21% among 18-24. We would really get a boost in states like New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Florida if young Hispanics register and turn out.

I've studied the Hispanic vote quite a bit since 2000. Many conflicting and frustrating facts. The Hispanic vote is only expected to be 3.5-4% of the total vote this year, but could be significant in many states.

Florida is unique with the high numbers of Cuban-Americans, who are registered in huge percentage and voted 85% for Bush in 2000. Bush carried Florida Hispanics by 30% with a 200,000 vote margin, even though Gore won among Hispanics nationwide, by 61-36 if I remember correctly. There are many indications the Cuban number will significantly decrease in 2004. Minus Elian Gonzalez outrage, Cubans may drop 10% of more in favoritism of Bush. Plus the percentage of non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida has been steadily growing, and they tend to favor Democrats.

I saw one study that indicated if you ask Hispanics to identify their politics, 49% choose Democratic, 20% Republican and 19% independent. Those are not registration percentages.

A full 70+% of Mexican-Americans are residents of California and Texas, obviously not in play.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. George took his eye off the ball.

Period.

This is interesting, equal # of Dems and Reps polled, but far more think * took his eye off the ball.

[delhurgo]

11. This looks like bad news to me.

It's already caused Kerry to be behind, and 3% are now on the fence. Every other Dem Corp poll I've seen up to now showed Kerry ahead. This is just one poll though, so maybe others will have different results. That looks like alot of movement though for just 24 hours.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. It Went From 49-47 To 48-47

and the MOE is 3...

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[delhurgo]

14. Yeah, I'm a freeper.

Why don't you report me?

I said it was just one poll, but it does look bad. Its not just the one point movement, but the fact that three percent are now just leaning - thats different from all the other DC polls I've seen. They've always showed Kerry ahead by a couple with just one percent leaning.

I understand though that we'll have to wait to see what other polls say.

[Mr_Spock]

15. Bad??? C'mon, the newsweek poll would be "bad" this is GOOD

Unless you don't like polls in your favor? Bizarre.

[JohnnyCougar]

16. Sorry to accuse you of being a freeper

but any poll showing Bush at 47% now is very good news to me.

[DemFromMem]

17. The OBL question is comforting

Thank goodness Kerry hammered home the "eye off the ball" phrase in the debates. It appears to be registering with people and this poll certainly seems to show it is making a difference.

[Sebum]

19. GWB fumbled like a frustrated schoolboy