Are New Mexico polls getting scewed by underrepresentation of hispanics?

[Bombtrack]

The Zobgy daily tracker there basically has it as leaning heavily Bush. The Boston Globe interactive electoral map has it as "light red" in the same category as NC and Virginia.

But considering that the state is only 67 percent white and among if not the highest rate for the poor and uneducated, wouldn't it be a prime candidate for the theory that there's a margin of voters undetectable to polling?

[Quixote1818]

1. I am wondering if Early Voters are not being counted

Their has been a tone of early voters here in New Mexico and New Mexico has gone from a 12pt lead for Kerry to a 10 pt. lead for Bush. I think the early voters are not being counted in the recent polls.

[pabloseb]

2. In theory, yes

I wonder if polls take some corrective measures to compensate this. They should, but in no way that means that they do. I really don't know.

[DemFromMem]

3. 32% of NM voters in 2000 were Hispanic

So Hispanics don't really undervote that much. I'm not sure if Zogby releases data on Hispanics for its state polls.

[Quixote1818]

4. I think it's going to be higher than 32% this year. Maybe 35 or 40%

Due to new registration and get out the vote efforts. Hispanics make up around 50% of the population in New Mexico.

[Bombtrack]

5. 42.1 percent

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/35000.html

[pabloseb]

6. Not all hispanics can vote n/t

[Bombtrack]

8. 42.1 is the percent of hispanics in the total population

the post I was responding to said that they made up half the total population

[pabloseb]

9. Right, that's why I made the distinction

At any rate, it's good to know that they voted in large numbers in 2000, and hopefully will vote in even higher numbers this year.

[0rganism]

7. Remember that a lot of these Hispanics are also devout Catholics

and some of their parishes have all but endorsed bush on the abortion issue alone. Don't count on the minority votes to rescue NM.

[MattNC]

10. i'm not confident about holding NM

seems like it's been a while since i've seen a good poll from there.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I don't remember a 2000 post-September New Mexico poll with Gore ahead

The last three polls in my New Mexico 2000 file have Bush ahead 3, ahead 2 and tied. All were within 5 days of the election.

New Mexico Hispanics may be undersampled, but they undervote also. Something like 21% of the 18-24 year olds in New Mexico voted in 2000.

[DemFromMem]

13. What have voter registration efforts been like in NM?

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Heavy for both sides

Someone posted in another New Mexico thread -- currently on page 2 or 3 here -- that the new registers broke down to 43% Dem, 26% GOP and 31% independents. That makes sense given the 52-32 Democratic registration edge in the state. However, we lose much more support than Republicans do, so the state is very close.

Here is a good article recent article on New Mexico politics. It's from the Washington Post. Might require a brief registration:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46232-2004Oct19.html

[comradebillyboy]

12. nm will be real close

if richard romero can squeek by horrible heather in district 1 (albuquerque) then kerry will have a solid win. romero is doing much better against heather than he did in 02.