New AmericanResearchGroup poll: B 48 - K 48

[pabloseb]

Link: http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

Note that this is one of the few polls that don't undersample democrats. I think it's a serious polling firm. Considering the undecideds will break for Kerry, this is good news.

[rockydem]

1. Good news

[RunningFromCongress]

2. I don't like these numbers:

Bush Kerry

Republicans (35%) 91% 6% 3%
Democrats (40%) 11% 87% 2%

That 11% is not a good thing, when compared to the 6% across the isle

[shawmut]

6. You'll like the numbers on election night

because Bush is going to lose. :)

[pabloseb]

7. There are many old dems that are repugs for all practical purposes

The same happened in 2000. Repugs have more crossover vote, but dems have higher turnout. Turnout and independents will decide the election.

[southern democrat]

8. I would'n worry too much about that # . I would say most of the

defecting Dems are in the red states in the deep south. Modern day dixiecrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Some Of That 11% Are Southern Dems

who haven't pulled the lever for a Dem since the first Rocky movie....

[Quixote1818]

10. Their sample is probably spot on! It may under sample Independents

and slightly over sample Dem's but from what early voting is looking like Dem turnout will probably be at or above 40%.

[requiem99]

3. Turnout is the key.

[Sean Reynolds]

4. A tie is AWESOME heading into election night.

Of course we all would rather be up. But an incumbent tied doesn't bode well. I can deal with it!

[montana500]

5. I like ARG's numbers

I think we are going to find out they will be the most accurate pollster this time around.

[59millionmorons]

11. Kerry leads 49-48 in two way.

American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters and likely voters, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 48% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 48% of registered voters and likely voters say they would vote for Kerry, 48% say they would vote for Bush, and 1% say they would vote for Nader.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Notice the poll is a Thursday-Saturday sample; two days with OBL

Or one -- today -- at bare minimum. Who knows if they sampled before or after the tape's release on Friday.

I respect ARG as much as anyone. They only release one poll per month, logical partisan breakdowns and no wild swings. The 86-11 Dems for Kerry and 91-6 GOP for Bush is virtually identical to 2000. If anything, the 40% Dem sample might be slightly high, but based on the 11% Dems to Bush it looks like they might have surveyed DINOs a little more than proper. I expect the 11% defections to drop 1 point this year.

Notice that independents slightly favor Kerry, 48-45, with 7% undecided. That's logically much more than either Dem or GOP undecideds, each in the 2-3% range.

If tendencies hold, a majority of the late undecideds will be women. They should break to Kerry as challenger in even greater percentage than women normally favor Democrats. As long as Kerry doesn't lose support among independents or get freak close loses in key states, we should take this thing.

[DaveinMD]

13. this election

will be won by turning out more of our voters.