ARG poll of New Mexico: K-48 B-47 N-1

[pabloseb]

Link: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nm/

50% dems, 35% repugs, 15% independents.

Are they oversampling democrats or is this the usual turnout in NM?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. New Mexico Is A Very Democratic State...

Registration Wise...

[MattNC]

2. i guess i have to bite my tongue

i just said in another thread i hadn't seen a positive New Mexico poll in days.

[Catch22Dem]

4. Yeah but

Look at the number of Dems vs. pukes. How can it be oversampled that bad and still be that close? Is NM going red this year?

[pabloseb]

5. See above post

This can be accurate numbers for New Mexico. Many democrats are southern democrats = repugs for all practical purposes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It Went Blue By 400 Or So Votes In 00

[Quixote1818]

10. Party affiliation in New Mexico is: 51% Dem. 32% Repub. 14% No Party

It looks like they over sampled Republicans and Independents and slightly under sampled Democrats. Give Kerry another point!


http://www.abqjournal.com/elex/238891elex10-10-04.htm

Among all New Mexico registered voters— including the old and new registrants— 51 percent are Democrats. Thirty-two percent are Republicans, and 14 percent chose no party.
Sanderoff, whose firm also conducts polls for the Journal, said his company analyzed the statewide database of all registered voters as of Sept. 21.

[Quixote1818]

12. New Voters Registered: 43% Dem. 31% No Party and 26% Republican.

[DaveinMD]

3. Its all about turnout

New Mexico is a complete swing state.

[DuaneBidoux]

6. Undecideds still at 4% too

that's good news (traditionally)

[troublemaker]

8. Excellent! (I admit I'd sort of given up on NM)

[comradebillyboy]

9. the dem gotv effort is a bigger effort than

i have seen before

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Don't doubt ARG; very consistent and accurate regarding partisan numbers

The ARG September poll in New Mexico had 48% Democrats, 34% GOP with a 49-44 Kerry lead. The state is 52% Democratic registers, 32% GOP.

New Mexico is a 50/50 state that happened to be blue in 2000. We have zero birthright to the 5 electoral votes. The GOP has made a yearlong push in New Mexico with the "Viva Bush" campaign.

I found this article from the Washington Post that I bookmarked earlier this fall. I recommend it to anyone interested in the current political realities of New Mexico. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46232-2004Oct19.html