Election Scenarios Game:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash?coll=la-home-utilities

Starting with what the L.A. Times gives you, I fill in the West Coast for Kerry. (CA, WA, OR, yes, and HI)

I give the Northeast as a region to Kerry (including NJ, NH, and yes, PA, the first leg of the "Big 3")

I concede the Southeast as a region to Bush (although maybe there are possibilities in TN).

I give MI to us.

I assume we will win at LEAST one of either WI or MN if not both, so I arbitrarily click one of them to Kerry.

If we win FL (2 out of the Big 3), then we are up to 269 and any other state wins for us. Including WV, IA, WI/MN, NM, NV, AZ, AR, MO, VA. No way do we not win any of those if we are winning 2 of the big 3. So if we win PA and FL we have basically won.

If we win OH (now PA and OH forming 2 of the Big 3), then we are up to 262, and need either one more big state (VA, CO, MO, AZ, WI/MN) or 2 smaller states (AR, NM, NV, IA) to win. Very doable but not nearly as easy as with the extra 7 votes from FLA.

So, with the "Big 3" focus, winning all 3 is a lock for victory, winning 2 is almost a lock if the 2 are PA and FL, a very likely path to victory if the 2 are PA and OH. Holding on to both MN and WI goes a long way towards ensuring victory.

If we lost a critical state like NJ or MI in the early going, it would be a very bad sign for our chances. Conversely, if early results show us winning both PA and FLA or OH without any unpleasant surprises, we will win. Likewise if we win VA (!!) in the early going, shrubbie can start packing his bags.

[XNASA]

1. How 'bout this one....

Kerry takes the West Coast, New England and the Great Lakes states with the exception of Indiana.

Iowa goes to Kerry.

Bush takes the rest including all of the Mountain and Plains states and the South including Missouri AND Florida.

Kerry WINS.

If Kerry carries Florida, Kerry gets over 300 EV.

Sounds promising.

[Brucey]

2. Yes, your logic is very sound.

I really believe that Florida is impossible. We saw in 2000 that even if we get the most votes, we still don't win, because the votes are not all counted there. Jeb will assure that shrub gets FL's EVs. That means we NEED MI, OH, PA, and two of MN, IA, WI.

It's doable, but looking tough. Let's hope the polls are wrong and even more states will go Kerry, such as New Mexico, Nevada, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, and Virginia. Let's hope. The alternative is too horrible to imagine.

[bain_sidhe]

3. Mine: I think we'll take BOTH MN and WI, AND Ohio

so, (my map as a jpeg below) We only have to win one other state. I sure hope it's one in the continental U.S... I do NOT want have to wait for Hawaii returns!