Minnesota Poll: Kerry opens a lead

[PSU84]

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5060798.html

October 30, 2004 at 8:43 PM
Minnesota Poll: Kerry opens a lead
Bob Von Sternberg, Star Tribune

Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has opened up a lead over President Bush in Minnesota, a state where the presidential race has for months been considered too close to call. A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found Kerry with the support of 49 percent of likely voters, while Bush is supported by 41 percent.

A St. Paul Pioneer Press/MPR poll of likely Minnesota voters released Saturday showed the race essentially tied, with Bush at 48 percent and Kerry at 47 percent. But a Zogby tracking poll also released Saturday showed Kerry with 49 percent to Bush's 43 percent in the state.

"This new poll is pretty good news for Kerry," said Larry Jacobs, director of the 2004 Elections Project at the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey Institute. "Bush has been consistently stuck in dangerous territory for an incumbent, unable to cross the 50-yard line, and there are not a whole lot of dark clouds out there for Kerry."

Although a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won Minnesota since 1972, it has long been considered up for grabs this time around, based on Bush's surprisingly strong showing four years ago and subsequent Republican wins in statewide races. As a result, it has been considered the heart of a three-state Upper Midwest battleground region that includes Wisconsin and Iowa. It also has included a blizzard of nearly daily campaign events, capped Saturday by President Bush's Target Center rally.

The key number in the poll is Bush's 41 percent, because it closely mirrors virtually all of the statewide polls conducted in recent weeks. "All the polls show him having a hard time breaking out of the mid-40s," he said. "And if you're an incumbent you want to be above 50 percent the week before the election." Of the most recent six statewide polls conducted since Oct. 17, half showed a Bush advantage. But Bush has not exceeded 50 percent in any of the polls.
The average of those polls shows Kerry with a 3-point advantage, 48 percent to 45 percent.

[The Chronicler]

1. It's a must-win for us (nm)

[Shopaholic]

2. And it looks like it's going to be a win for us.

:bounce:

[DuaneBidoux]

3. What looks good here is that several polls are converging in

Kerry's favor. This confirms Zogby's state findings. I would love to UNCONFIRM what he is finding in Ohio.

[Robeson]

4. Great News. Thanks!

[snowbear]

5. A hockey state... selecting a hockey player!

Kudos to Minnesota!! :bounce:

[Mr_Spock]

6. Correction, Bush was "selected", Kerry will be "elected" :D

:D

[Thrill]

7. MN go to a Repuke? No way

[dodger501]

14. Minnesota will NOT go for Bush

I am positive of it.

[BlueJazz]

8. I used to live in Minnesota and I'm glad the voters...

...have come to their senses. I was appalled when they elected that POS Norm Coleman to the Senate.

[Dudley_DUright]

12. Me too RL

I hate to think of that POS crapping all over everything Paul Wellstone worked for.

[Eric J in MN]

9. Minnesotans - keep getting-out-the-vote. Take Election Day off.

Don't get complacent.

There will be $500,000 in Swift Boat ads in the final 3 days in Minnesota.

People in ANY state can find an event to help John Kerry by entering their zipcodes at:
http://www.johnkerry.com/

(right of the screen)

[Pithy Cherub]

10. Minnesota is Kerryland!

The land of a thousand lakes and a million Kerry votes!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. Hahahahaha!

Eat shit, Pioneer Press!

[wellstone dem]

13. this is very similar to another poll in Minnesota released on 10/28

http://wcco.com/campaign2004/local_story_302092459.html

The statewide poll released Wednesday shows 49 percent of likely voters surveyed favor Kerry, while 42 percent support Bush. Ralph Nader received support from 2 percent of those surveyed, according to a report in Thursday's edition of the St. Cloud Times.