President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry have made only occasional mention of Israel in their campaign appearances these past few months. Their surrogates, however, have been working overtime, in battleground states like Florida, which are rich in Jewish voters, to tout their candidate's records on Israel. And in the final days before Tuesday's election, prominent Jewish political commentators have ratcheted up the rhetoric on the issue, devoting their columns to what they predict will be an overwhelming - and some argue, lamentable - Jewish embrace of John Kerry, despite President Bush's embrace of Prime Minister Sharon.
Most are basing their predictions on an American Jewish Committee poll from September, which showed Kerry winning 69 percent of the Jewish vote to Bush's 24%. Another poll commissioned by the National Jewish Democratic Council showed a similar spread. Twenty-four percent is five percent more than Bush won in 2000 against Al Gore, but far less than the 40% many Jewish Republicans had anticipated.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1098937089567Bush has lost about 5 percent of the Cuban vote to Kerry, and Kerry has overwhelming support among Hispanics according to the latest poll of Hispanics. Bush has not met the needed threshold of 83 percent of Cubans needed to win in Florida, and he has not taken away the necessary 40 percent of the Jewish vote he also needed to win this state.
Another factor that is not taken into consideration in Florida is its growing Muslim Population. If thepolls are correct, Bush could lose close to a 800,000 votes in Florida among the two groups that supported him in 2000, Muslims and Cubans.