Kerry leads 52 - 41 among early voters in IOWA

[Proud2BAmurkin]

Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041030/NEWS09/41030009/1001&lead=1

[fujiyama]

1. If the number

that shows up on election day is close to being tied, KErry wins.

That's what happened to Gore - Bush got some 7000 votes more on election day, but with the absentee ballots won him the state.

Gotta GOTV in that state!

[GreenPoet64]

2. cool !

[Technowitch]

3. Huh? Who the heck is pulling the other 11%?

Or are those the "refused, wouldn't say" ones?

[JusticeForAll]

13. That is a really good question

that a reporter should have asked.


Their early polling data has a +/- 6.7 MoE for anyone interested. It makes the Kerry lead a so-called statistical tie, but a very laughably unlikely tie!!

More awesome news from the early returns!! The pollsters are going to be put to shame on Wednesday.

[snowbear]

4. Wow!!

Kudos to the state that won him the primary!!! ~~~ :bounce:

[Straight Shooter]

5. I love that phrase, "Kerry leads bush"

I can't wait until he leads America B-)

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. i'm worried that these reports we're seeing about....

dem turnout (early voting) giving kerry the edge is nothing more than a call to action for the bushies. i mean, i saw a similar report re: miami-dade. i think these reports are thinly veiled attempts to mobilize bush's base.

[Blasphemer]

8. I don't think it will work...

Even if that's the plan. The Repubs who are staying home are doing so for a reason - complete disenchantment with the Shrub. NOTHING will energize those people. The true believers don't need to be motivated.

[billyoc]

11. Exactly, the zombie hordes of moonies

will vote * no matter what, any non-koolaid drinkers are staying home or voting Libertarian or Constitution party. Bank on it.

2 days left, time to turn it on. GOTV! :)

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. i hope you guys are right.........

i don't mean to sound pessimistic...i just hope this all spells a clear & decisive victory for us. :toast:

[KharmaTrain]

25. If They're Not Energized Now, The Bunny's Dead

Remember, the wingnuts have had Nov. 2 circled on their calendar a lot longer than many folks around here and this was supposed to be the coronation they so much wanted in 2000.

Rove predicted 4 million new GOOP voters...we're gonna see if that's the case, and if his base is as big and strong as they claim it to be. I started sensing major problems after Abu Gabril and then the real slide starting after the Democratic Convention...Rove has been on non-stop damage control and trying to squeeze every last emotion out of his shrinking base.

The only way for Rove's dreams to come true are to supress the Democratic vote, and I've heard attempts to slow down lines by lack of Repugnican polling judges and silly protests at polling sites are what they're resorting to...but I sense the passion of our many factions is so strong, we'd be lining up in Florida in Hurrican force winds to remove this regime...I don't think the same could be said of their side.

Cheers!

[maxudargo]

7. Good news. The midwestern states are so important in this election

for symbolic reasons in addition to the electoral votes. I'll take what we can get, but I don't want to see a Kerry victory based on the western and north-eastern states exclusively. If he can win Iowa and hopefully Colorado and New Mexico, and maybe even Missouri, then the right will have a harder time characterizing his victory as a victory of urban, coastal elites over the American "heartland."

God, it would be great if he could win Arkansas and West Virginia.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

14. Looking more like a Kerry sweep

!

[tedoll78]

18. RIght now,

It looks like Kerry will win via:
- the Left coast
- everything NorthEast of and including Pennsylvania
- Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Minnesota
- Florida


That leaves pretty much all of the Rockies, the western half of the plains, and the South. And if they don't like it, tough titty.

[Arugula Latte]

22. Ooooh, and ol' Virginny, too

That's my pipe dream (?).

[pabloseb]

9. VERY good news

Early voting is going better than 2000 in the few states where we have some info. I don't see why election day should be different.

:bounce: :hi:

[MidwestTransplant]

10. Vilsak said he doesn't think Bush can close with Kerry up that far already

Could be just spin but let's hope he's right.

[maxudargo]

20. Ok, who is "Vilsak" and what is "spine?"

[MidwestTransplant]

24. Spine was supposed to be Spin and Vilsak is the Gov. of Iowa.

[maxudargo]

27. Ok. Is Vilsak a Rep.? I know I'm being ignorant here...

[MidwestTransplant]

28. Dem. Probably the VP runner up to Edwards.

[pabloseb]

12. Did you see this! KERRY HAS THE MOMENTUM

"Kerry ran more strongly against Bush toward the end of the five-day polling period than he did at the beginning. Bush had to deal with news reports last week concerning missing explosives in Iraq and an FBI probe of Pentagon contracts with Halliburton, Vice President Dick Cheney's former company."

[Proud2BAmurkin]

17. BIG mo in ALL the new polls

!!!

[Quixote1818]

15. It said 1 in ten 2000 Bush Supporters defecting to Kerry. I in 20 Gore

voters defecting to Bush.

Four years ago, Democrat Al Gore edged Bush by only 4,144 votes in Iowa. The poll shows one in 10 Bush voters from 2000 is defecting to Kerry. That compares with just 5 percent of Gore supporters who are supporting the president in this election.

That comes out to a net gain of 30,000 votes for our side!

[Proud2BAmurkin]

16. huge

.

[fujiyama]

23. My hope

is that is how it will be in all swing states. The NYT said Kerry has lost only 7% of Gore's voters, compared to Bush losing 11% of his. That's OK though, because Bush's Christian fanatacism may have played well with people in already red states...and more conservative dems in those states may have flipped.

I would assume in most swing states the numbers are similar to Iowa though. Bush's presidency has clearly been a failure. The economy is in tatters. Millions of jobs are lost. Healthcare access is down. More are uninsured. People are getting killed in a endless war that had no justification. Bush failed in his promise to "hunt Osama down, smoke him out, dead or alive". Instead he's back. What was the line Sharpton used to use during the primaries about Osama and videos?

This very well could be a bellwhether and we could see a huge victory. GOTV GOTV GOTV!

[4dsc]

21. Today's Kerry rally was great!!

I rather cool day but Kerry and the crowd kept things HOT..

AWOLbush coming to town on Monday!! I'll be at the Kerry headquarter making calls!!

[faithnotgreed]

26. yeah! this is so exciting.... thanks for your hard work!

[SleepingDragon]

29. I canvased this afternoon in Davenport, Iowa. Huge turnout of volunteers

working to GOTV. Volunteers were 10 times expectations and from what I here the same happened in Des Moines. The Kerry voters are very energized. They want "the bastard out of office now!" (An Ex-Marine was quite specific as to what * could do with his vote) My wife was on the phone bank all afternoon and talked to a Dem whose husband was a republican crossover voter for Kerry. Talking to voters is a real rush. They are more radical than I am!

We are all dedicated to working solid for the next three days to walk, call, drive and bring the Kerry vote home. Scott County (Davenport) should go big for Kerry and turnout should be huge. In 2000 Gore carried Iowa by some 4000 votes and carried Scott county by 3000 so this is definitely where the action is in Iowa.

:kick:

[Chomskyite]

30. Damn!

Iowa just might be the state that triggers the networks to say "Your president-elect is John Forbes Kerry." But then it could be Ohio, too, right?

:headbang:

Anyone want to make a friendly wager which state it'll be?

[fishwax]

31. 27%? Fantastic!

Way to go Iowa!

The Des Moines Register also shows Kerry ahead in Iowa. It seems like the mediawhores have had it light red for months, but I've been keeping faith. (I lived in IA for three summers and loved it. I knew it wouldn't let me down :))

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1235100