November Surprise?:

[nadinbrzezinski]

November Surprise?:
Kerry Could Win In Virginia

WES WEIDEMANN
TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST Oct 29, 2004


Falls Church. Conventional wisdom holds that in the presidential race Virginia is a "safe" Republican state. This year, however, it is politically like a sleeping volcano with periodic subsurface rumbling and movement. Nobody is certain whether this is just a clearing of the political throat or warning of a major upheaval about to happen. Nevertheless, there are a number of powerful trends unfolding that could result in a "November surprise" and turn Virginia from Republican Red to Democratic Blue.

I've reached that con- clusion based on two types of evidence. The first is my recent personal experience heading up a nonpartisan voter-registration and get-out-the-vote organization called Virginia Votes. With the close of voter registration on October 4 we had registered more than 8,000 Virginians and distributed 800 absentee-ballot applications - without a cent of outside support from either political party.

The second category of evidence is an assessment of available data on new voter registrations in Virginia as well as election trends operating nationally that are likely to also play out in Virginia.


http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031778812394&path=%21editorials%21oped&s=1045855935007

[BluegrassDem]

1. Can you imagine the reactions of Brokaw and Russert

if VA turned blue? OMG, they'd probably croak over! That would be great if VA turns blue. I've always thought that Kerry should spend some time there. It's a great opportunity. If Kerry somehow pulled off VA with it's 13 EV's, it sure would open up way more opportunities to reach 270!

[Firespirit]

2. Thinking more short-term....

Virginia going blue would be good on many stomachs and fingernails the night of Nov. 2. I'm not sure what it would mean if it went red, but if VA gets called for Kerry early, it's time to pop the cork. The question then would be, is Kerry getting more or less than 325 EV's.

[harpo]

3. more...374 is my prediction

[Buns_of_Fire]

4. Lord knows, we're tryin...

The combination of a high overall voter turnout, large numbers of highly motivated new voters, increased participation by young adults, and much higher participation by overseas voters has the potential to provide a "November surprise": waking up on November 3 to find a national electoral map with Virginia painted Democratic Blue.

Personally, I don't think Virginia will turn completely blue this time around -- but I do think it'll wind up at least blue-purpleish...

[RedTail Wolf]

5. Voter turnout is very high

Early voting in red states like mine of Georgia have Dems lined up for hours! I think there will be many surprises on Nov. 2nd. That electoral map will be more blue than many think!



RedTail Wolf

[fujiyama]

6. I saw a poll

at 51-47...I think it was released just a day ago. www.surveyusa.com

There is a possibility. If Kerry were to win the state, it definetely would be a landslide.