What's your EC prediction? (here's mine)

[stevietheman]

Here's my current EC prediction:

Kerry 305 Bush 233

I was thinking 300/238 until today when I decided to move Nevada into Kerry's column. Based on recent elections, this state has been moving left, and I think Kerry's going to pull it out this time. The polls are also close there.

I'm also giving Colorado to Kerry as another surprise. Senatorial candidate Salazar (D) is strong and will pull Kerry in with him.

I'm giving Ohio to Bush as I think all the GOP shenanigans there are going to pay off for the GOP. That on top of the polls going back and forth so much.

My gut says Florida goes to Kerry. But even without Florida in my picks, Kerry still wins.

[tedoll78]

1. Here's mine (in mathematic form):

(All Gore States) - (Iowa + New Mexico) = 248EVs.

248EVs + Ohio + NH = 272EVs.

272Vs = My Sunday Morning Prediction.

==========

This is subject to change, however. I am still worried about Ohio, and Iowa and Florida look skin-of-the-teeth close right now.

[WCGreen]

2. Kerry 286, Bush 252.....

Kerry wins FLA, MI, Minn, Wisc, PA and Iowa.

Bush wins Ohio, CO, Nevada and New Mexico..

And yes, Hawaii and New Jersey go for Kerry....

Wildcards states.... West Virginia and Virginia...

Kerry by 1.5 million in the popular.... Just because of new voter registration......

[stevietheman]

3. We're on the same page, except...

I have CO and New Mexico going to Kerry.... interesting. It's also hard to imagine the Virginia's not going to Bush, but I'd be happy to be surprised there.

[WCGreen]

5. I have just looked to where Bush and Kerry

are campaigning...

Now Ohio, in the internal Kerry polls, must be still in play because he is nding up his campaign here in Cleveland on Monday night....

But I still think Bush has too much in the hinterlands to keep Kerry from winning Ohio.....

[stevietheman]

7. I think Ohio...

is this year's Florida, except that its result either way won't decide the election.

[harpo]

4. Kerry 374 / Chimp 164

[Contrary1]

6. Kerry - 283 Shrub - 255

Kerry takes Minnesota, Ohio, and in an upset, Colorado

Jebbie gives FL to the Dim Son

[mellowinman]

8. Bush might get Texas

It's going to be a far bigger landslide than any of you are predicting.

Kerry will take Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

I shit you not.

[tritsofme]

9. 269-269 Bush Popular Vote Victory

Faithless elector from WV goes for Kerry, and he wins the EC.

Collective suicide on FreeRepublic and numerous RW pundits.

[stevietheman]

10. I must admit...

that would be quite a delicious result.

[Lexingtonian]

11. Kerry, 316 to 340

All Gore states (though Iowa is a tough call) for 260 EVs, plus New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada with 56 more. Kerry simply has the margins in Ohio and Florida (almost 5%) that make them too hard to steal. New Hampshire isn't any closer and they don't like Dubya there. Nevada is Kerry's happy little surprise, tipped by the voters registered in September and early October.

Arizona seems to me the toughest to guess; Colorado and West Virginia should be pretty tight too. I'll be cautious and give them to Dubya for the time being, they're all three going to give their winner less than 2% and maybe less than 1% margins. I'm guessing a little more Christian Right turnout in those states than we know about, but a Kerry surge-let is certainly possible. That's another 24 EVs that could easily end up Kerry's.