How is Clark preparing for the possibility of a Kerry or Edwards win?

[mot78]

A win by Dean, or even Gephardt win, I won't hurt Clark directy. Whereas an Edwars or Kerry upset could hurt him. Is the Clark campaign working on a plan to deal with this? Have they considered manipulating the media's expectations of them a la Rove in much of the '00 election?

[Kahuna]

1. I agree with your assessment. Dean or Gep won't damage Clark...

too much. Edwards or Kerry could change the race. Although, it's been a while since Iowa picked a Democratic nominee.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Yes, but....

At the end Democrats are coming to their senses and they want the most electable......and here why that's Clark:

Kerry still faces the problem of being a New England politician who is very eloquent, but very boring. A rich guy who's not so likable and has no charisma.... As well as he still voted for the IWR, and abstain for voting on the recent Medicare bill. Plus he's an insider.

Edwards still faces the problem of being seeing as unexperienced....in other words, a lightweight. He also voted for the IWR and co-wrote the Patriot Act. he's an insider, whether he believes it or not. Plus he was a trial lawer.

Wes Clark trumps both of these candidates as he offers both Kerry's advantage of Military record and Foreign policy experience and Edward's positive campaign style, likability and southern roots. Further, his domestic policies are just as good as the other two...and he's got the money, the internet support and Clintonites all over the place. And only he can attract independent and Republican cross over voters.....and still get the moderate and the liberal vote.

[Kahuna]

6. I agree with you too. Kerry is very difficult to listen to at times.

That would not prevent me from voting for him. But it would hinder him with the shallow, style over substance voters.

[anti-bush]

7. Edwards did NOT co-write the Patriot Act

As a member of the Senate Intelligence Comittee he was required to be involved in the discussions about it. Bob Graham, did however co-write it, and Evan Bayh of Indiana co-sponsored it. Edwards was not however a co-author of it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

3. Kerry will have a problem in the Feb 3 primaries. Last I checked, he was

in 5th place or below in all the Feb 3 states except Missouri (where he was in 3rd). I heard one pollster say that he didn't think that Kerry would get much of a bounce in New Hamp from Iowa because "they already know him there - why should a group of New Hampshire people care what Iowans do?"

Hoever, this is different from what I had heard before - so who knows...

[arewethereyet]

4. if Iowa becomes a surprize, expect all other polls to change a lot

n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. He prepared by raising a lot of money

Either a Dean win, or a narrow Gephardt win with Dean as a strong second over the rest of the field, sets up the scenario where Dean remains as the clear frontrunner with Clark poised to emerge as the clear Dean Alternative. We're familiar with that scenario. It has advantages for Clark, but risks also. That scenario pits Clark up against a strong Dean. Backers of other candidates may or may rally around Clark quickly enough for Clark to stop Dean's rush to the nomination.

However a Kerry or Edwards upset definitely would weaken Dean, though it would still not knock Dean out of the race. Dean has enough money and support that he would attempt to regroup and carry the fight on to other states. Under this scenario I don't see any candidate emerging quickly with the nomination. It would be a wide open race. Kerry, Edwards, or both, would be players, at least for awhile.

Clark though also has real support. Most of Clark's current backers are backing Clark for who he is, not for who he isn't (Dean). Clark has volunteers all over the nation. Clark can raise money. Clark has been connecting with voters in NH, and everywhere else he has gone recently. It is reasonable to say that some of Edward's and Kerry's supporters in Iowa would have backed Clark there, rather than picking another alternative to Dean, had Clark been a full player in the Iowa contest. From New Hampshire on out, Clark will be a full player, and he will get back some of the supporters from Kerry and Edwards that would have more naturally gravitated to Clark in Iowa had he run there.

So this scenario has advantages for Clark also, along with disadvantages. Only Dean had been positioned to score a possible quick knockout, and he likely no longer will be if he loses to Kerry or Edwards in Iowa. Clark really does have the potential to become the ultimate Democratic Party unity candidate. A lot of Kerry people have respect for Clark, related to his National Security experience. A lot of Dean people respect Clark also, appreciating his "anti-war" attacks on Bush, his non Washington insider status, and his grassroots appeal. Since Edwards and Clark are the only Southern candidates, and the ones who have most consistently run a positive campaign, there is overlap in their support base also.