Gotta Admit it - I'm a little worried about Ohio

[liberalpragmatist]

I realize I shouldn't get so bummed about just 2 polls. Still, both the Zogby tracking poll and the Mason-Dixon tracking poll (I know, Mason-Dixon leans Bush) have showed Bush pulling ahead. My head's telling me to ignore it, it doesn't mean anything, Kerry's led most of the previous surveys, great turnout operation from ACT and others - I hope we'll take it, and I was really confident just a couple days back. Now, though, I have to admit, I'm getting a little worried that the momentum in Ohio is towards Kerry.

And yes, I know, looking at the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll is useless from a statistical point of view - they fluctuate because of the different samples.

Even so, I just can't help it. My head's telling me not to worry, but I'm getting so anxious about this election, my gut just can't help but get worried when I see some *tiny* movement towards Bush in Ohio.

sorry.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

1. "sorry"

Yes, you are.

[Erika]

Agreed.

Eveything is going for Kerry not against him.

[lgardengate]

2. Ohio worries me as well. I hear to much/see to many polls

that are Pro Bush. I live in WV and i am almost sure we are going Bush. Arrggg! I want this election Over!

[BUSHOUT]

3. ewwww. DU needs a cryin' section! n/t

[tedoll78]

4. Don't apologize.

The fate of the world may be riding on Ohio - it's perfectly normal to get nervous. I'd be wondering about you if you weren't worried about Ohio (or any other state, for that matter..).

Relax.
Breathe.
Have a drink.
Listen to some music.

We'll take Ohio's 20EVs. Watch and see.

[w4rma]

5. Why are you here obsessing about polls? You should be asleep so you can

wake up and get to work early to help elect Democrats. Ignore ALL polls, good or bad.

[Erika]

6. This Country Is Tilting Kerry....

and democrat in a way not seen for decades.

[Hello_Kitty]

7. Fuck Zogby, Fuck Gallop, Fuck Rasmussen, Fuck the rest

Get your :kick: :kick: :kick: out there and canvass, phone, drive, what the fuck ever and get John Kerry in the White House!!!!

[David Dunham]

8. We will win Ohio if we work hard and GOTV

[atre]

9. There isn't a single state hurt more by Bush policies than Ohio

Somehow, regardless of what the pollsters think, I just can't see Ohio going anything but blue.

[montana500]

10. lol!

you are basing this on the zogby and mason dixon polls, both of which suck?

Kerry has had a steady lead in Ohio. Look at the Arg polls, the susa polls, the la times polls, the Chicago tribune polls, etc etc.

[OhioChick]

11. Not to Worry.....eom

:dem:

[Psephos]

12. Put the crack pipe down (i.e., stay away from the polls)

Polls are collections of statistics. Repeat after me: There are three ways to mislead - lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Reading polls at this point can do no good and certainly can do harm. Polls are supposed to track reality, but if you pay too much attention to them, reality starts to track the polls. (Just ask the Red Sox how much attention to pay to polls.) The key to donk happiness on Tuesday now lies in an energized base that can transfer enthusiasm and motivation to the last of the undecided voters.

Take some comfort from the 2000 polls. They were nearly all OUTSIDE their confidence intervals, which means they failed their own tests of validity. (Zogby was one of the few exceptions.) In other words, the majority of polls' margin-of-error numbers were plain wrong, because they were based on faulty assumptions.

Remember, polls have to be adjusted and re-weighted to correct under-reporting or over-reporting of sub-demographics in the sample groups. In plain English, pollsters have to make some informed guesses about how their sample differs from the entire voting population, and then tweak their numbers. That's right, they FUDGE them (as scientifically as possible), and hope for the best.

You should do the same: hope for the best, and spread that hope by staying on message and energized. Votes are like stock prices; they are driven by a feeling that everyone else is exuberant about your stock (or your candidate) too. SO DRIVE THAT FEELING.

[fujiyama]

13. Ignore the polls

There's no point "worrying" about them at this point. It's all about turnout...GOTV! GOTV!
GOTV!
GOTV!

[RunningFromCongress]

14. I'll be in Ohio, we will win ohio

[DefenseLawyer]

15. What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know?

Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Zogby, he's a dead man! Gallup, dead! Niedermeyer...!

[Psephos]

17. LOL n/t

[DivinBreuvage]

16. I just can't believe Bush will win this state

I don't feel it. I have no scientific sampling method to back it up, but I definitely feel a far stronger presence for Kerry here than I did for Gore in 2000 or even Clinton in 1996. Admittedly there are plenty of stupid people in this state but I just don't think they'll be able to pull it off this time.

[unfrigginreal]

18. lol - YOU should be worried about Ohio