Some wonderful news from New Mexico

[59millionmorons]

This from http://www.mydd.com/, which is a great site if you never have been there.

Zogby and Mason-Dixon agree that New Mexico is tilting to Bush, yet ARG today released a poll showing Kerry leading by a 48-47 percent margin in the state. Whenever I get these conflicting results, I head to the local in-state online newspapers to find out what's up.
I don't know who in the heck Zogby & M-D are polling, because the news looks good for Kerry, as New Mexico's voter rolls have surged by 12% since 2000-- an increase of over 119,000 newly registered voters, mostly among 18-34 year-olds. Here's the facts I culled:

Party ID of NM:

Democrats 51%
Republicans 32%
Independents 14%

119,000 newly registered:

Democrats 43%
Independents 31%
Republicans 26%

Percent of those newly registered: (D - I - R)

18 to 24 year-olds 36% 39 38 23
25 to 34 year-olds 19%
With Spanish surnames 31%
The 527 organizations like ACT, Moving America Forward (Richardson's group), New Voters Project, & ACORN have been working like crazy, Richardson is a popular Democratic Governor, the issue of the War in Iraq is driving young people to register & vote like never before, the demographics that lean Democratic are those registering to vote, and Republicans are trailing Independents in those newly registered!
I think we'll just have to chalk this up to the pollsters not being able to reach the actual voters for their polls; because the facts on the ground point toward a Kerry victory in New Mexico.

[theHandpuppet]

1. Bill Richardson is one cool dude

I'd love to see him get a top post in the soon-to-be Kerry administration.

[littlehammer]

2. no way bush wins NM

There is no way the wood chopin cowboy is going to win our state. It is nice though to see the piglicans wasting time and effort in our state, this takes them away from the states we need to win like OH and FL. I think Kerry is going to take both. Bush is going back to his chainsaw and pickup truck and we will never have to see him again.

[RoadRunner]

3. The thing is you can't trust polls in New Mexico.

Thanks for numbers and research! I never believed * was up in NM, regardless of the polls.

Four points from my own observations:

1. Many, many voters here either don't have a phone at all or use cell phones exclusively. Lots of others are so sick of being polled that they just hang up on them.

2. Judging by early voting numbers there will be a record turnout this year, favoring dems.

3. Lots of pickups and SUVs in New Mexico have Kerry bumperstickers. Starting to see "Republicans for Kerry" stickers too.

4. Majority of population in NM is hispanic or American Indian - both groups heavily favor Kerry. The Navajo Nation endorsed Kerry last week (that's the majority vote in the four corners region, and they're not likely to participate in polls).

* is toast in NM, always has been, always will be.

[usregimechange]

4. Looks like it should be Kerry in a landslide! nt