The Trend Is Not Bush's Friend

[DemocratSinceBirth]

George Bush goes into Tuesday's election in a virtual tie with John Kerry... He's stuck at 48%, the same percentage of the vote he received in 2000... Approximately 51% of the vote in that year was garnered by candidates left of center-Nader and Gore...


Bush is in serious trouble...


In addition to those facts Kerry has inherent advantages which include the fact that Democrats underpoll, voters break disproportionately against the incumbent, and Democrats benefit from a huge turnout...


Things are so good for us that Kerry only needs to split the challengers and win on turnout...

[Zynx]

1. Incumbents typically do worse or only as good as they are polling.

Carter, Clinton, and Ford all did worse. Reagan and Bush the 1st did as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. We Can Afford To Break Even And Win On Turnout (nt)

[MrModerate]

3. However, with the passion of THIS campaign . . .

is anyone out there thinking the results will be "typical?"

I'm watching from half a world away, but what I hear is that the Repubs are also energized as all get-out.

I'm crossing my fingers, but I'd be lying if I said I was sure that historical trends will hold this time.

[malatesta1137]

4. you're all assuming

the votes will be counted properly. It will NOT happen. These people have been planning the theft for months.

[Deja Q]

5. Agreed. Indeed, the only reason why they're worried is because

of the amount of dissent against *.

Maybe * should have delayed 9/11/01 to 10/24/04. x(