By R. W. APPLE Jr.
Published: October 31, 2004
<snip> In the end, the outcome is likely to be decided by what political pros call "the ground war": the effort by both parties to get every supporter to the polls on Tuesday. Although there are almost limitless ways either candidate could reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to win, whoever wins two of the big three states would have an advantage that would be difficult to overcome.
With only 72 hours until the polls begin opening, Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, appeared to be trending Mr. Kerry's way, with most but not all opinion surveys showing him ahead by about three percentage points. Mr. Bush has failed to dent the four suburban Philadelphia counties, whose liberal attitudes on social issues like abortion and gun control have overshadowed their economic conservatism.
Florida, with 27 electoral votes, was agonizingly close four years ago, with far-reaching consequences, and it is the hardest of the big states to read this year. If anyone holds an advantage, it is probably Mr. Bush, if only because of the influence of his brother Jeb, the governor. But the Democrats, energized by the sting of their agonizing defeat in 2000, seem to be benefiting more from the outpouring of early voters.
Here in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, Mr. Kerry has capitalized on job losses during the Bush administration. He seems to hold a tenuous lead as volunteers from both parties pour into the state, often seen as a microcosm of the nation, to get out the vote. He has taken to carrying a lucky buckeye in his pocket. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio, and the state has gone with the winner in all but two elections since 1892. <snip>
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/31/politics/campaign/31states-web.html?thGOTV!
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