Kerry Tied In Fox Three Way And Up By One In Two Way-Among RVS Up By 2

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/103104_poll.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I'll Bet Freak Republic Smells Like A Barn With All The Freaks Fouling

Themselves...

[joefree1]

2. They're up to something

Watch those people.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Their Poll Was One Of The Most Accurate In 00

The only thing more important to FOX than their ideology is ratings...

[Zynx]

3. This is good news! Kerry up by six among Indies!

[sonicx]

4. They slipped in a few extra republicans...

LV partisan support is EQUAL for both Kerry and *, Kerry leads independents by 6%, and he leads in both women AND men.

If you weight to a reasonable turnout model, (38/35/27) Kerry's up a lot more. i don't feel like figuring it out, tho. :)

[Zynx]

6. If you weight it properly, Kerry 48.53 to Bush 44.8!

Unless I did something wrong.

[sonicx]

9. sounds about right. Gore lost independents in 2000 and still won the PV

If Kerry wins indies, he pretty much can't lose the PV unless alot of Democrats vote for Bush (15% or more) and they don't turnout well(LOL).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Thought Fox Weights By Demographic As Does Democracy Corp..

Their model electorate has the same number of urban, rural, suburban voters, et cetera voters as they expect the "real" electorate to have...

[sonicx]

11. If they do, it isn't in this poll...

Bush and Kerry can't have the same % of partisan support with Kerry leading independents, and NOT have Kerry leading.

[underpants]

7. Funny Russert said Fox had Bush up by 2

Gee how could he have gotten that one wrong?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. In All Fairness The Poll Came Out After The Show Started

nt

[DemFromMem]

12. Big turnout means the RV number is more likely to be right

In prior elections, Republicans have turned out their base in higher percentages than the Democrats so when pollsters tell you the likely voter number, it assumes a normal voter turnout. If we're off the chart on voter numbers, registered voter poll will be more accurate. In fact, we'll do better than the RV numbers by a couple of points if we get a very high percentage of the new voters to exercise their franchise.

[wishlist]

13. Interesting that 12% Bush supporters may switch, only 6% Kerry may

Scrolling down all of the poll numbers here shows that there is a higher commitment of Kerry supporters to not changing their minds and for actually voting for Kerry than they found for the Bush supporters by a 6% margin! This is a great trend if true.