Kerry 286 Bush 252 How I got there......

[WCGreen]

Taking the estimated Census data for 2003 and projecing a 62% turnout from all people 18 and older and using the data at

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This is what I project popular vote wise based on EV site......

Popular Vote EC Vote
Bush 63,697,270 47.94% 246
Kerry 61,545,901 46.32% 283

Bush up by 2,151,369 in Popular

Nevada and New Hampshire are tied.... Hawaii is not going for Bush.... I think we are going to lose Ohio.....Not comfortable with New Mexico just yet....

My prediction, given the above..... Kerry, 286 to 252....

Rass Three day Tracking

Bush 48.23%
Kerry 46.97%

I take Rass three day average and then three day average that. So this is a running average of the running average.......

Again, let me state that this is a projection based on, in some cases, polling data that is at least a several weeks old. So, Bush is way ahead in his Strong states while Kerry is just comfortably ahead in his strong states.

[still_one]

1. WRONG

worst possible case:

Kerry will get all of Gore's states PLUS FLORIDA

[WCGreen]

4. Just not comfortable with New Mexico...

If we take New Mexico, it's 291 to 257.....
My projection includes FLA and New Hampshire and Hawaii..... for JFK

For Bush, New Mexico and NEvada.....


That is all the Goore State less New Mexico plus NH and FLA.....

[Was_Immer]

2. DUDE we are NOT going to loose Ohio

Um hes up by 6% in Ohio, even FAUX news is saying ohio is looking good for Kerry

[WCGreen]

5. I live here and have been active for over 35 years....

It's just a feeling I have that Ohio is going to break toward Bush. Why, because he has gotten a lot of positive press here in the CLeveland Area from all his recent visits.....

I could very well be wrong and hope I am but, I want to show you how we can win without the Buckeye State

It would be nice to grab it but I still think it goes Bush.....

[Randi_Listener]

3. WRONG

Try again. Get a new sheet of paper because this fucking one has red ink shit all over it.

[WCGreen]

6. I'm an accountant, I try not to be giddy and irrational

but look at things from a realistic way....

[phish420]

7. My prediction

(meant to post this yesterday, but since my bandwidth was used up on my site, I couldnt link to it...lol)

[phish420]

8. Correction...OH for Kerry

Since doing that map yesterday, it has occured to me that despite the corrupt Sec of State up there, the people will speak loudly in OH and go for Kerry, which would put the total at
K 306
* 232

[phish420]

10. Updated Map

[WCGreen]

9. Same as mine

I still am not comfortable with the Buckeye State.....

To many wacky fundies clinging down by the Ohio River and over by Indiana......

[phish420]

11. Rural areas....not too effective

Thats the beauty of it all...they can have those rural spots because it takes MANY of them to equal one democratic metro stronghold

[whirlygigspin]

12. i've got Kerry at 320

keep hope alive!

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

13. My scenario, leads to 303 EV's.

I could definitely envision us winning FL, NV, WV, or losing one or more of my blue states. But I think we will win...

[faithfulcitizen]

15. AR & VA??? why, are we polling well there now?

[Deja Q]

14. If the supreme court gave * the title because of popular vote,

then we should be up in arms because of Selection 2000 where Gore lost despite having the larger popular vote.

Nor do I believe, for one attosecond, that * is more popular. Not by a longshot.

[WCGreen]

16. I just put that in there as a talking point...

The fact is the Dem's have outregistered the R bigtime...

I use a 62% TO average across the county. I am sure the TO in energized areas is going to be higher and in some safe areas, it will be lower...

So, it's just a starting point for discussion..

Two weeks ago, I had Kerry up by about 75k...

It ebbs, it flow....

It all depends on what poll EV is using as it's benchmark for the day.....