The way I see it, Kerry absolutely needs Ohio.... What's going on there?

[Brucey]

Who knows Ohio politics and polls? What is happening in that state? I believe Kerry absolutely needs Ohio, and I believe it is tough. What can you tell me about what is going on there?

[NEOBuckeye]

1. Well, there is going to be a MASSIVE rally in Cleveland on Monday

With THE BOSS, Bruce Springsteen, no less. Cleveland is massively Democratic, of course, so this one is about mobilizing our base.

Kerry's been in Ohio every day this week, I believe. He has made stops with Bruce in Warren (Youngstown area) and Columbus. I think it's working. If you believe any of the polls, the Columbus Dispatch has Kerry up over Bush by 6 or 7 points statewide.

The Akron Beacon Journal, A Knight-Ridder newspaper, on the other hand, has Kerry in a statistical tie with Bush, 48 to 46, in Bush's favor.

I still say that Kerry has the edge. Campaign volunteers stopped by my house today offering tickets for the Cleveland rally tomorrow. I'll be there.

[owenthewonderdog]

4. Warren rally

We got Bon Jovi, not Bruce.

But hey, now I know Bon Jovi doesn't lip synch. :silly:

[owenthewonderdog]

2. G'day Bruce

It seems as close as the polls say. We live in the rustbelt, which should be solid Kerry but there are plenty of Dubya bumber stickers and a few lawn signs.

The missus and I volunteered today for Tuesday and we're lazy so that must be a good indication of our side's motivation.

[kerry2win]

3. if clevelands any indication

I've had 4 different times this week when I've had people come by making sure I was going to vote democratic. I've also had 6 mailings and only one of them pub.I've volunteered for Tuesday to help get out the vote,so I think their ground game is very strong here and the pubs I haven't seen at all.

[phish420]

5. Ive heard conflicting things...

I caw something on CNN today that suggested a 6 pt kerry lead in ohio, but I missed the source...probably LA times...most have it even or a slight kerry lead. Only seen maybe one that has * ahead there.

[Melinda]

6. Depends on how one interprets the polling data here:

http://www.nowchannel.com/state/?s=Ohio

Bush by 3% Ohio 48-45-n-(2.6) 10/26 - 10/28 Mason-Dixon
Tie " 50-50-n-(2) 10/20 - 10/29 Columbus Dispatch
Kerry by 3% " 47-50-n-(3.5) 10/23 - 10/25 SurveyUSA
Kerry by 2% " 47-49-n-(4) 10/23 - 10/25 American Research Group
Kerry by 4% " 45-49-n-(4) 10/22 - 10/26 Los Angeles Times
Bush by 4% " 50-46-n-(4) 10/19 - 10/25 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 6% " 43-49-2-(4.9) 10/17 - 10/21 Scripps/Ohio University
Kerry by 6% " 44-50-1-(4) 10/17 - 10/20 CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush by 2% " 47-45-3-(3.5) 10/17 - 10/18 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics
Kerry by 2% " 47-49-n-(3.8) 10/16 - 10/18 SurveyUSA

[phish420]

11. Ahh...so Ohio U must have been the one I heard

At least I know now I wasnt hearing things...

[deadparrot]

7. From what I've heard, I think it will come down to

whoever has the better ground game.

[Polly Glot]

8. If you care to use yard signs as an indicator...

Here in Cincinnati, I've noticed virtually no Shrub yard signs in the poorer neighborhoods... maybe 2 Shrub signs to every 3 Kerry signs in the middle class areas... and 1 Kerry sign to every 3 Shrub's in the wealthiest (ie, Indian Hill).

I live in a working class suburb of town and the signs are slightly more Shrub.

Still I think the margin of K/E signs is remarkable for a supposedly heavily-leaning Repuglican corner of Ohio.

I'm new to the state so I can't say for sure in what direction the wind blows in the rest of Ohio, but I feel pretty comfortable in predicting:

OHIO WILL GO KERRY!

[Radio-Active]

12. I live in Cincinnati

Overall, I've seen probably 10 Kerry signs for every 3 Bush signs.

I was surprised by how few I saw on the westside. I imagine that Bush is getting all the suburbs, like Indian Hill - however, Kerry is very strong in the city core, and throughout many of the neighborhoods.

If Kerry is winning in Cincinnati, and I believe he is, then Kerry should win Ohio!

[harpo]

9. He doesn't need ohio...its just a bonus :)

[atre]

10. We need Florida or Ohio

Hopefully we'll get both, but I believe we'll need at least one.

[Brucey]

13. I agree.

But I think FL is impossible. I believe Jeb will make sure his brother takes the state. No matter how many votes Kerry gets, they won't all be counted. Sorry, but that's the precedent in FL.

[Technowitch]

14. Kerry's gonna take Ohio, handily.