Kerry by a landslide!

[benburch]

I've been saying for weeks, and it looks like it is going to shake out that way!

I am so pumped!

[TexasSissy]

1. No, it doesn't. You drinking Kool-aid again? It looks like Kerry has a

good chance of winning marginally. Bush also has a chance of winning, if Kerry screws up.

There is no chance of Kerry getting 60% (a landslide).

[TruthIsAll]

3. If Kerry gets 53% it would be a landslide (7-8%% margin)

He would win with over 360 EV

[benburch]

11. Exactly.

And I think that is JUST what will happen.

I think that the current round of media predictions of a Kerry victory will work to keep more marginal Bush supporters at home.

[TexasSissy]

16. All I'm hearing are Bush win projections. Where are you hearing

Kerry win projections? Yesterday on CNN & MSNBC - Bush win projections by pundits. All of them, except those who say too close to call. Not one Kerry projection. (I'm speaking of pundits, now, not Kerry or Bush people, who of course predict wins for their candidates.)

[TexasSissy]

15. I don't consider that a landslide. Reagan was a landslide, with

60% or close to 60% (and over 400 EVs). But 53%? That's a comfortable margin, but hardly a landslide, IMO. Maybe that's the difference, what some people consider a landslide.

[benburch]

4. It isn't even going to be close.

Bush has almost no chance.

[ahem]

12. I agree with you...

Not even close.

[jobycom]

6. electoral or popular?

He could get 60% of the electoral vote.

[benburch]

8. Electoral

Kerry's strategy is all about the Electoral College.

And I think we are likely to get over 300 EVs.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

2. To benburch

watch out there are people here who will jump on you for saying "landslide."

[benburch]

5. Bring them on.

We are going to destroy the GOP tomorrow.

[jobycom]

7. One day short of the election? Alright! nt.

[benburch]

9. Well, OK, On Tuesday.

Sheesh...

[jobycom]

10. No, no, I'd rather anihilate them on Monday! nt.

[DuaneBidoux]

13. I won't jump on anyone for saying landslide...

but I wish I heard it a little less often.

[benburch]

14. Why?

I think it is the most hopeful thing you could hear...

[TexasSissy]

17. Hopeful & positive is saying we are likely to win. False bravado is

saying we're a shoe in to win a landslide. There is just no factual or historical basis for saying or thinking that. It sets people up for a big letdown. And it just makes people tend not to listen at all to people who predict a Kerry win.

I believe in reality. It looks like Kerry is favored to win by a small majority of EVs. Nothing more. Bush is solid in almost all the states he won in 2000, and several of them have increased in electoral votes (because of population increase), while several Democratic states have decreased in EVs (Pa. for one). Additionally, Kerry is struggling to keep several Dem. states that Gore won. Bush, on the other hand, is struggling to keep two important states that he won last time (Ohio and CO). Bush's job approval hovers at 49%, on average. Not enough to predict a loss, but not enough to predict a win for him. It's just not tested, historically.

In order to win, Kerry would need Pa., Ohio, and probably Florida. All three. Or...he'd have to win ALL of the other battleground states that he is statistically tied with Bush on right now. Tough but doable. To win by a landslide, he'd have to win Pa., Ohio, Florida, and most of the other battleground states that he's tied with Bush on, even those where Bush is leading by several points. That is extremely unlikely. The same is true for Bush. Everything points to a marginal win by one or the other.

Of course, I'd love for the unlikely to happen, and for Kerry to win by a landslide. I'd absolutely love it. But I'll settle for just a win of any size.