CBS News poll Bush 49 Kerry 46 LV

[jezebel]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/politics/main652497.shtml

[Cyrano]

1. Don't even bother reading it. Kerry in a landslide.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

13. Yup.. CBS had AWOL up FOUR at this time in 2000

http://pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

[StupidFOX]

2. Wow, even in the most Bush-friendly polls...

Bush can't break 49% :evilgrin:

[high density]

3. Once again...

A lead within the margin of error, yet it's called a Bush lead. They almost never call it a Kerry lead if it's within the MOE.

It says Bush leads 51/43 over those who have already cast their ballots. I guess 6% don't even remember who the heck they voted for.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. but their "likely voters"

doesn't include newly registered voters, I believe. And I think they will be a key in Kerry's victory.

[snowbear]

5. I don't care to read that link either, but ..

what does the "LV" stand for anyway? :crazy:

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. LV = Likely Voters

And likely voters are usually defined as people who voted in the last election. That means the thousands of people who just registered this year aren't counted. Which also means the numbers are crap.

[deadparrot]

6. Likely voters are bullshit.

That's all I'll say on that subject.

[Goldmund]

7. What was CBS poll last week?

[high density]

12. They give the numbers from two weeks ago...

Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 2.

[aquart]

8. Unlikely voters will decide this election.

[Confident]

9. Having trouble making link work ... any interesting

internals or other data in this poll?

[Randi_Listener]

10. Only 3%

Within the MOE and the fucking RW shills are falling over themselves to call it a clear lead.

[Cyrano]

21. Love that picture. Looks like the chimp just dropped a banana and

is getting ready to go after it.

[fearnobush]

14. But..... Kerry leads in the battle ground states.

"The thing that we can be absolutely certain about is that this is an extremely close race and that every poll I've seen has Kerry ahead in the battleground states," Mellman said.

[sonicx]

15. that's not bad. btw, approval is at 49 and everything besides terra

is below 50 too.

[West Coast Democrat]

16. Don't worry, they only polled 643 "likely voters" w/ 4% margin of error

From the link:

"The effective number of likely voters is 643. The margin of error for the number of likely voters could be plus or minus four points. "

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/opinion/polls/main652496.shtml

[59millionmorons]

17. Heck this poll only missed it by 5% in 2000 Bush 47-42

Like I said in this thread all the polls that got it wrong in 2000 are showing the same numbers from 2000. All the polls that got it right in 2000 Harris,Zogby and Fox all have kerry ahead or tied.

http://www.aapor.org/default.asp?ID=39&page=news_and_issues/aapor_newsletter_detail#table1

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1243661

[shivaji]

18. I am sad since I expected Kerry leading by a good margin by now

What with the awful performance by shrub in 1st debate, the
unaccounted for 380 tons of high explosives, 1100 soldiers
killed in Iraq, 120 Billion wasted so far, privatization of
social security, no Canadian drugs, etc etc....I would think
Kerry should be at 55-45 with shrub.

[lancdem]

19. The polls are wrong

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I really wish Kerry had gone more positive in the final week

Or perhaps he did, but the events simply didn't allow that to be presented.

Look at the troubling sentences toward the bottom of the CBS link:

"However, there is evidence in the latest poll — as there has been all along — that Kerry supporters don't need to admire the man to vote for him. Only 41 percent of registered voters view Kerry favorably, and only 42 percent feel he shares their priorities."

It's always been likeability that has prevented Kerry from taking this decisively, by that I mean 2 to 5 points.

[Straight Shooter]

23. Being positive as in being positive and ignoring the Swifties?

Positive doesn't help at this time. American is too enamored of macho, macho, macho. Kerry is a better man than bush, in all respects, and there's no way he's going to take the high road while bush is slithering in a ditch like a snake. Kerry needs to just crush him.

For all people say about they hate negative campaigning, it works. Rove is bush's main man for only one reason, he knows how to spread poison.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Poison would have zero impact vs. a Clinton or someone with charisma

Bush won the likeability aspect of exit polls by massive margin over Gore. I predict similar on Tuesday.

We're kidding ourselves if we don't think positive is effective or necessary. I had 19 people in my living room watching each debate and the near unanimous verdict was the wanted more specific and positive commercials from Kerry.

[sonicx]

24. MOE +/-4 and...

the CBS poll has always had Kerry favorable ratings low (i've seen the favorable rating in the 50s in most other polls).

[Captain Lance Bass]

22. who cares anymore?

polls ...shmolls...vote on Tuesday that is the ONLY poll that matters.

[melody]

25. Trying to help their master win

C'est la vie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Interesting

One big comfort for Kerry might be that in 2000, polls reported two days before the election tended to show Mr. Bush ahead of Al Gore. On Nov. 6, 2000, ABC News had Mr. Bush up by 4 points, the Washington Post and NBC by three, Gallup by two and Reuters/Zogby by one.

Gore won the popular vote by about 543,000 votes.

CBS News polls went from a 5-point Bush lead on Nov. 5 to a 1-point Gore margin on Nov. 7.

[AldebTX]

27. Obsession

I find myself obsessing on the polls, checking the battle ground states again and again. At this point in the game they mean NOTHING. They aren't going to change anyone's minds or vote. What matters is getting out to VOTE. Getting friends out to vote and getting family out to Vote.

For the first time in my adult life my parents and I are voting for the same candidate. KERRY. Kerry in a landslide.

NOTE...my parents are long time Texans...and worshiped the ground that * walked on. No Longer. Its just 3 votes in Texas...but the shrub is not getting them.