Do any Swing staters here think it could be a landslide for Kerry?

[Onlooker]

Some of you are predicting landslides, planning smack talk with Freepers, talking about celebrations. But, a lot of us are hopeful, but cautious. What makes you think Kerry will win big? The polls don't support that, and the anecdotal evidence (such as new voters pouring it) also exists for the Repugs (highly motivated Christian right-wing). I hope Kerry wins big, but I'll be happy if he ekes out a victory by a margin of 3 or 4 electoral votes.

Does anyone in a Swing state think it's going to be landslide for Kerry? I think people in Swing states might have more insights because they are the ones being wooed by both campaigns. The rest of us are being largely ignored, and all our evidence is based on news reports.

[July]

1. I'm not a swing-stater, but

I think Bush maxed-out his Christian right-wing support last time. If anything, he's losing support among them (a small segment thinks he might be the anti-Christ, supposedly).

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. That's what my husband heard

from a fundamentalist Christian. She even gave him scriptural verses that proved Bush is the anti-Christ!

[ClassWarrior]

2. Wisconsin here...

YES!!!

I've been volunteering for awhile now - and there's a certain energy in the air. Not to mention more volunteers than the campaign knows what to do with...

24.

[geekgrrl]

11. yes- I think Wisconsin is for Kerry

I've been making phonecalls all weekend to remind people to vote- everyone seems mobilized and excited. I think the turn out will win it for Kerry!!

[ClassWarrior]

19. You doing it with the campaign?

Or on your own?

24.

[geekgrrl]

22. with ACT

Act for Victory- organized through my union- AFT Wisconsin.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Arkansas is in play for Kerry

I've lived in NW AR since '91. I've NEVER seen so many Dem signs-even more than when Clinton ran, especially around Harrison, where I work. Democrat Jan Judy is giving the Repuke incumbant Congressman a run for his money. I've heard from folks who have come up to me spontaniously and started talking against Bush. NW AR is the most Repuke part of the state-if this goes even marginally for Kerry, the state will go blue.

[Philostopher]

4. I'm in Ohio.

I'm hoping Kerry gets enough of a margin that the GOP can't pitch enough votes to destroy it. That's about as good as it gets, here, I'm afraid. But I've been a political junkie for 25 years. My hope is tempered with all the disappointments of my lifetime watching this stuff. I don't want to discourage anybody -- I've quit posting anything of this nature around here, other than about my fears of outright violence in polling places in inner-city Ohio on Tuesday, because nobody wants to hear it right now and it isn't especially useful; and because I'm already a freakin' wreck about this year's election, and I don't need to get roasted around here because I can't bring myself to type 'landslide' in a post.

That about describes my mood. I still think Kerry has a chance at taking sufficient margin here that the litigation won't take Ohio away from him, that's about as optimistic as I get. At least most of Ohio's voting paper -- either punch or optical scan -- so I won't have to go on for the rest of my life asking, should Kerry lose Ohio, if it was just someobody juggling the bits and bytes, not the reality.

[StupidFOX]

5. PA - Gore 2000, Kerry 2004

There's no denying it. Oh, and for the record, let's just say the high educated around here tend to lean left. ;)

[greenman3610]

10. Michigan will go Kerry

The polls from the Detroit News have occasionally shown
Bush up, but Democrats are energized like I have
not seen in 40 years. Volunteers coming out of the
woodwork...more Dem signs than anyone can remember.

I predict huge turnout. Since that is what seems to
be happening everywhere..the natural prediction is that
where it's close, it should go Kerry.
Close popular vote, electoral blowout as
all the swing states go kerry, including a
few surprises like Arkansas.

[meganmonkey]

7. I think Michigan is Kerry all the way!

Some still consider it a swing state, and most polls are pretty tight. But I think for various reasons, it's in the bag for Kerry.

First, the whole 'polls-are-skewed' stuff we've all been reading about here. Between poorly weighted samples, no cell-phone-only users, and the surge of new registrants (which most seem to agree the dems are doing more successfully), the polls are not accurate.

Second, Detroit is heavily African-American, and due to fears of voter intimidation and challenges by Republicans, I think people there are more likely to vote and to make sure their vote counts than they ever have been before, and there are tons of folks signed up to be pollwatchers all around the city. (Congressman Pappageorge made an oft-quoted remark about suppressing the Detroit vote to guarantee Michigan goes Red. It got so much press that I think it will cause the opposite effect).

Third, I just moved into a small, conservative pick-up truck driving, Nascar watching town, and there are a TON of Kerry signs and stickers, and the local tiny movie store is doing the free Farenheit 9/11 rental thing and the clerk told me that a LOT of people are renting it. Yes, it's anecdotal, but if it's true here it's probably true in a lot of the other so-called republican strongholds in Michigan.

If I had a faster internet connection, I'd track down links for some of this but it would take me forever.
Here's one...

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/002193.html

[Soopercali]

8. PA here - and yes, I think so.

My VERY Republican suburb of Philadelphia has a gazillion Kerry signs - the only Bush-Cheney signs I've seen are at the homes of the Republican township commissioners. Some Republicans have the signs up for their congressional and state rep candidates - but no Bush-Cheney signs.

I've been wearing a Kerry-Edwards button for weeks, and everywhere I go, people say, "I wish I had one!"

You can just feel it. People want Bush out of office.

[johnnie]

9. In the Cleveland area

It looks like Kerry by a landslide from what I have witnessed. Cleveland typically leans left, but I don't remember this kind of support for Gore in 2000 as it is for Kerry. I'm talking signs and stickers.
The majority of people I know are going for Kerry. I do know a few for bush and they are the fundies that I know. There isn't many of them though.
I've been canvassed four times and all four were Kerry people. All my phone calls have been from dems. All I can go on is that out of my friends and family, it is probably 10-1 Kerry.

[Kolesar]

14. Around Cleveland, I go out with my Kerry hat and people smile at me

I feel good about this state

[MichiganVote]

12. First of all, the mainstream media have been lying their heads off

for the last three years. So, why bother with their polls. I only pay attention to those that are entirely separate from ABC, NBC,CBS, CNN etc.

I think Kerry will win because people are getting used to the idea that a change may not be so bad and could be a good thing.

Kerry-Edwards--listen up. The thing that makes a differnece in Michigan is when you have your faces in front of the camera's. People need to see you!!!!!!!! Stay in the news!!

DU and anyone else with the power to do it. You must plaster Kerry-Edwards pictures over every available visual space.

[gollygee]

13. I think Michigan will go for Kerry big time

I live in a more conservative part of Michigan - and more people here seem to be going for Kerry than Bush. If more people on the west side are going for Kerry than Bush, then Bush is waaaayyy going to lose Michigan. I was driving through Allegan County today -freeperville, and I was SHOCKED how many K/E signs I saw compared to Bush signs.

Edited to add that almost everyone I knew was voting for * last election, and Gore *still* took Michigan. Kerry is doing TONS better here than Gore did 4 years ago.

[chiron22]

15. New Poll: New Registrants in Battleground States Prefer Kerry 2-1

A new poll by a republican pollster has found that those who have registered to vote in the battleground states within the last 6 months favor Kerry by 62 to 29%.

I don't have a link for this, but I just heard Pat Buchannon say this on MSNBC and put up a graphic with the numbers. (It may be 60 rather than 62%, but I'm sure of the 29%.)

I have to say, I think it's a wrap. The polls are going to be further off than they were in 2000 by a very significant margin. This may change the House and Senate races.

In many ways, it could be the beginning of a new era in American politics. By pursuing such an extreme agenda, he may have created a new electorate that has arisen to defeat him.

[olddem43]

16. Big landslide - we will win all the Gore states plus Ohio,

Fla., and a few others.

[onecent]

17. I think it is going to be a landslide. Everything points to this.

4 years ago Bush bumper stickers by the gazillion.
Seen less than 20 this entire year.

Never saw Gore yard signs last year. Tons of Kerry signs and they are being stolen ALL over the place. I spend time at the Demo headquarters on Armour Rd and we are replacing them for free daily.

Know an old man who drives an 'old' dodge ram truck and he has 2 full size Kerry signs on the back of his truck. It is HILARIOUS.
I asked him if he has gotten any bad responses...he talks realllll slow and he said, "Well...I'll tell ya, I stop at stop signs and people honk at me and give me a thumbs up".

The back of this old pickup makes me laugh everytime I see it.
It is wonderful.

People talk against Bush in the lines where people in this town went for Flu Shots.

Gas prices are sky high. 900 more jobs at home depot today being done away with.

And looks pretty clear Osama's little video hasn't scared anyone.

People want change

[ahem]

18. Florida here and I believe in a Kerry landslide...

I do believe it will be Kerry in a landslide (thus my signature graphic.) I am planning a celebration. I'm *not* planning any smack talk, though -- I feel it's my duty to Kerry to help unite this country, he can't do it alone, and smack talk won't help anyone.

As for why I believe what I believe, firstly I don't trust the polls. They're notoriously inaccurate (remember the polls in 2000.) Also the polls usually reflect "likely voters" and this year we will see some of the most unlikely of voters (thanks in part to a huge youth, often dedicated cell phone users not counted in most polls.)

Personally I know of lots people who voted for Bush last time but will be voting Kerry this time, yet I don't know of anyone who voted for Gore last time that plans to vote Bush.

Working against us is the chance of massive misconduct at the polls--voter intimidation, etc. And of course, outright electronic theft of votes. I believe this is the only way we'll "lose." Otherwise, we have our landslide.

And finally, for me personally, it's a better choice to have the 'landslide' mentality. Dreading and stressing doesn't help. I want to stay positive--I can deal with whatever happens November 3rd (or whenever we know for sure) good or bad, but for now I'm going to do what I can to get out the vote, pass out voter's rights info, and keep a positive outlook.

[4_Legs_Good]

20. Thanks to everyone checking in! I am getting nervous

not because things aren't looking good, but just because time is running out.

thanks to everyone for the great news!

Keep kicking ass!!!

david

[Lefty48197]

21. I think Kerry will win in a landslide because Bush is the worst Pres. ever

All the campaign contributions, and all the tv, radio, and newspaper lies can't change that.

[fizzana]

23. All you have to do is read this letter on TPM

Something is afoot. Even here in liberal Los Angeles there is more energy than I've ever seen before.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.php#003880

My job is to get people to the polls and, more importantly, to keep them there. Because they’re crazily jammed. Crazily. No one expected this turnout. For me, it’s been a deeply humbling, deeply gratifying experience. At today’s early vote in the College Hill district of East Tampa -- a heavily democratic, 90% African American community — we had 879 voters wait an average of five hours to cast their vote. People were there until four hours after they closed (as long as they’re in line by 5, they can vote).

Here’s what was so moving:

We hardly lost anyone. People stood outside for an hour, in the blazing sun, then inside for another four hours as the line snaked around the library, slowly inching forward. It made Disneyland look like speed-walking. Some waited 6 hours. To cast one vote. And EVERYBODY felt that it was crucial, that their vote was important, and that they were important.

And there were tons of first time voters. Tons.